Preventing humans from going extinct in the next decade continues to affect the future indefinitelyâhuman extinction seems like a clear âlock-inâ event.
Whyso? Something being locked in forever is not sufficient for longterm benefits?
Suppose the European Unionâs (EUâs) ban on housing chickens in battery cages is locked in forever, in the sense the vast majority of farmed chickens in the countries which currently belong to the EU will forever be outside cages. This does not mean the marginal advocacy for the ban had longterm benefits. I think the number of chickens in cages in 1 M years would have been the same in expectation if the spending advocating for the ban had been e.g. 10 k$ smaller. I would estimate the benefits from âincrease in the probability of the banâ*âacceleration in the transition to cage-free conditional on the ban being passedâ. I believe this last factor is like 3 to 10 years, thus preventing astronomical benefits.
Why departing from the logic above for âlongtermist interventionsâ? One could define these interventions as ones which depart from the logic above, but the question then is whether such interventions exist.
Hi Michelle.
Why so? Something being locked in forever is not sufficient for longterm benefits?
Suppose the European Unionâs (EUâs) ban on housing chickens in battery cages is locked in forever, in the sense the vast majority of farmed chickens in the countries which currently belong to the EU will forever be outside cages. This does not mean the marginal advocacy for the ban had longterm benefits. I think the number of chickens in cages in 1 M years would have been the same in expectation if the spending advocating for the ban had been e.g. 10 k$ smaller. I would estimate the benefits from âincrease in the probability of the banâ*âacceleration in the transition to cage-free conditional on the ban being passedâ. I believe this last factor is like 3 to 10 years, thus preventing astronomical benefits.
Why departing from the logic above for âlongtermist interventionsâ? One could define these interventions as ones which depart from the logic above, but the question then is whether such interventions exist.