Thanks for this feedback! This is really useful, it can help me to improve.
This could be a good idea, making different scenarios could clarify things, indeed. I think I will do that.
I didnât have the impression that I focused so much on battery storage, howeverâI talk about it for metals, but the issue of metal scarcity spans is valid for many technologies. For me, the biggest issue is manufacturing: hard to change at the speed required, requiring a lot of investment, and leading to considerable losses in efficiency.
For seasonal storage specifically, I wouldnât count on finite fossil fuels, and overcapacity is both energy costly (building even more of what we have) and has limited potential (the âone month of storage requiredâ already is for a âsupergridâ over the Mediterranean sea). Adapting demand would work better, but I donât know to which extent this can be doneâfactories need to be used 60-90% of the time to pay for the investment cost.
Same, good idea. I though about detailing common counterarguments but everything seemed very long already. But doing so could also clarify things. How do you suggest I do this? Making a new post with scenarios and counterarguments ? Or editing the existing ones ?
This is an interesting question, and it could be an additional kind of scenario that would not take into account the issue of time. There are several reasons I see limits to that, but a main limit is low EROI, indeed. There are 2 different opposing trends: on one side, EROI can improve because of technological progressâbut on the other, EROI will likely be lower because of declining metal ores, storage, and the need to replace transportation and roads and manufacturing with less efficient solutions (like hydrogen).
Another question I have is whether we can maintain our complex society at all with only abundant metals, as the others will face declining trends: for instance, a smartphone uses 60 different metals in the periodic table. Computers are also very complex. They would be required for a lot of automation. I donât think that can be sustainable, or only at a much smaller scale.
Thanks for this feedback! This is really useful, it can help me to improve.
This could be a good idea, making different scenarios could clarify things, indeed. I think I will do that.
I didnât have the impression that I focused so much on battery storage, howeverâI talk about it for metals, but the issue of metal scarcity spans is valid for many technologies. For me, the biggest issue is manufacturing: hard to change at the speed required, requiring a lot of investment, and leading to considerable losses in efficiency.
For seasonal storage specifically, I wouldnât count on finite fossil fuels, and overcapacity is both energy costly (building even more of what we have) and has limited potential (the âone month of storage requiredâ already is for a âsupergridâ over the Mediterranean sea). Adapting demand would work better, but I donât know to which extent this can be doneâfactories need to be used 60-90% of the time to pay for the investment cost.
Same, good idea. I though about detailing common counterarguments but everything seemed very long already. But doing so could also clarify things. How do you suggest I do this? Making a new post with scenarios and counterarguments ? Or editing the existing ones ?
This is an interesting question, and it could be an additional kind of scenario that would not take into account the issue of time. There are several reasons I see limits to that, but a main limit is low EROI, indeed. There are 2 different opposing trends: on one side, EROI can improve because of technological progressâbut on the other, EROI will likely be lower because of declining metal ores, storage, and the need to replace transportation and roads and manufacturing with less efficient solutions (like hydrogen).
Another question I have is whether we can maintain our complex society at all with only abundant metals, as the others will face declining trends: for instance, a smartphone uses 60 different metals in the periodic table. Computers are also very complex. They would be required for a lot of automation. I donât think that can be sustainable, or only at a much smaller scale.