Well, I’m certainly not trying to suggest that you can look at the price of futures and tell exactly what the price will be in 10 years. But I would expect the price of 10-year futures to approximately capture all known information, including the factors you mention, those mentioned in the essay, and more. My understanding of the argument in the OP essay is that we should expect oil to be very expensive in the medium term, and if you think that is true then the efficient markets hypothesis should apply. Do you disagree with that? And how, exactly?
As for your remark about the IEA estimates, I note that these forecasts are not tradable and not subject to the efficient markets hypothesis. Is your claim that oil futures systematically under-price the future price of oil? Though even if that were true, I don’t think it contradicts the markets based argument, since predictions about (and risks of) future price changes are not necessarily symmetrical.
If we are debating expert predictions though, then I should point out that experts have also consistently and falsely predicted the coming arrival of peak oil supply.
Well, I’m certainly not trying to suggest that you can look at the price of futures and tell exactly what the price will be in 10 years. But I would expect the price of 10-year futures to approximately capture all known information, including the factors you mention, those mentioned in the essay, and more. My understanding of the argument in the OP essay is that we should expect oil to be very expensive in the medium term, and if you think that is true then the efficient markets hypothesis should apply. Do you disagree with that? And how, exactly?
As for your remark about the IEA estimates, I note that these forecasts are not tradable and not subject to the efficient markets hypothesis. Is your claim that oil futures systematically under-price the future price of oil? Though even if that were true, I don’t think it contradicts the markets based argument, since predictions about (and risks of) future price changes are not necessarily symmetrical.
If we are debating expert predictions though, then I should point out that experts have also consistently and falsely predicted the coming arrival of peak oil supply.