These are very good points you’re making, thanks for the thoughtful answer.
For solar, when I spoke of new technologies, I spoke mainly about your 2020 link—but I agree that solar panels can be made without rare metals, this is true. It’s probably possible to make version of them that do not rely on too complicated stuff. The limits on metals are rather about the quantities required for batteries: current energy transition plans focus mainly on lithium (which will mean shortages given the long downtimes). It’s possible to switch to other metals to avoid stuff like cobalt (say we use Sodium Sulfur), , but by the time we decide that this would mean a serious delay. For copper and zinc, the issue is more that they’re used about everywhere, so there’s a lot of competition for their uses.
For planes, steel or trucks, my main point is not that it’s impossible to replace them. My point is that alternatives are less energy-efficient, or have more constraints, or are more expensive (less affordable), or will a take a long time to deploy. “We can do that”, yes, but at what scale?
Land constraints : How many biofuels would be required? Won’t that compete with land and food? You can check the section on biofuels here.
Efficiency losses : For hydrogen, the problem is not about materials, indeed. It’s rather a problem of lower efficiency, and high investment required. For storage, I think the highest issue for hydrogen is the low round-trip efficiency, only at about 30-40% from what I’ve seen, meaning we lose a lot of the energy invested. I’m sorry, I mixed several different challenges in the storage and hydrogen parts, so the structure wasn’t really clear.
Transition time: It’s possible to make steel with hydrogen, you’re right. There are pilot plants for that, as your link shows (although their estimates for commercialization are earlier than I though). But smelters take a huge amount of upfront investment and last 20 to 50 years, so most investors are to change. How long will it take to scale up, especially as the higher cost will deter most investors? How long will it take to replace the 98% of hydrogen currently made with fossil fuels? I made a section on manufacturing, you migh want to check “limited incentive to change”.
For trucks, I didn’t know that the Volvo ones were commercial yet—I was rather waiting to see how the Tesla semi was doing. They have longer range, higher load, and lower battery reloading time than I expected—that’s a surprise. I’m reassessing my assesments upwards for trucks (although I’m curious how long these batteries can last, and if they will have a lot of success). However, it’s gonna take some time to replace the entire transportation system—if oil peaks within 10 years, it’s unlikely that electric truck production will be high enough to prevent some kind of supply crunch here.
There is decoupling at a global level, indeed, indeed, but only relative decoupling, where we still need more energy for every point of GDP. For point c., I meant the “energy intensity of the economy” (sorry, I was unclear), and you’re right, it has indeed been declining. However, I fear that’s not enough: we need absolute decoupling, where GDP increases and energy use declines. Empirical data, at the global level, seems to indicate we are far from doing that (and we can’t extrapolate based on what rich coutries do). Even if we were to attain absolute decoupling with a lot of political will, we’d have to maintain it over a long time, but we can’t increase material efficiency indefinitely, as there’s a physical upper bound here, and diminishing returns.
You’re right to point out that Giraud wasn’t peer reviewed—I slipped past that. Given that, there are probably more elements showing there is a “two-way causality” between energy and GDP here, not a single way causality, you’re right. That would make sense since economic growth allows for the investment in energy, while constraints on energy production can cause tensions on economic growth (like in the 1970s and 2008). Not sure if that changes conclusions much, though.
“Both Giraud and the peer-reviewed Ayres document end their analysis before renewable energy becomes a notable fraction of the total”—Not sure I understand, what does that imply?
What I meant is that these models do not take into account how all these solar panels and windmills and batteries are built. Switching manufacturing to green hydrogen requires more energy than just using coal, so that means additional capacity, which is not included in models.
I think we’re getting closer to an agreement. I would be more tempted if your thesis were “energy will become much more expensive at some times of day/year, as will certain minerals, and this will depress GDP compared to naive expectations.” It’s not obvious to me that low energy storage does more than require heavy industry to relocate to more consistent climes and/or stop for a few days each year, which would depress GDP but hardly to the level of existential threat.
I think most of these are economic points about how expensive it is to make the transition, rather than showing it’s impossibile. It certainly won’t be cheap in any individual sector, but as a fraction of the global economy we aren’t necessarily talking very large amounts of investment for these changes, and many governments already have plans and incentives to make this happen. A lot of this analysis feels like you trying to make a new Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) from scratch without writing down equations, and I think the disagreements you have with existing IAMs are not as substantial as you think. Things like land use constraints for biofuels are typically included in good models, as is the inefficiency of hydrogen, e.g. based on IEA values in [1]. You might dispute the numbers but they’re fundamentally reasonable. Land use is a problem if you want to power a large fraction of the world this way, but not if you just want to power a few small sectors like aviation, and provides some defence against renewable variability. The truth is there is no silver bullet for these transitions, but a range of viable portfolios that are hard to calculate without numbers.
I am more techno-optimist than you, and therefore think that we can sustain a mild continuous increase in energy use from only the improvements in the efficiency and affordability of renewable energy (as in the Ren scenario) and this enables a large increase in GDP, if that’s something society wants. I don’t think this is indefinitely required anyway; I don’t think it’s a particular problem for society if GDP grows subexponentially in 50 years time, or even remains constant at a high level for everyone.
I think you would like this paper [2], which makes a similar point regarding energy investment requirements. Although a lot of IAMs don’t include this, for small modular technology like solar cells and wind, it’s not that big an issue (whereas it is for nuclear). This is also why bioenergy is so popular in spite of the low efficiency—no adaptations required to use it. As stated above, I believe the inefficiency of green hydrogen is accounted for in good models.
Yes, we may get closer to an agreement on several points. My thesis is close to how you formulated it, although it’s more of “I think energy will get more and more expensive overall[or at least less affordable], and it should reduce overall GDP for a long period”.
The issue of storage is not just that energy will be less available at time of the year, it’s that there is a serious risk of blackout and/or the grid straight up crashing down (but we’d go for blackouts first). Blackouts would impact many things that depend on electricity: communications, refrigeration, ATMs, hospitals, most factories and microchips production… Relocation is possible but 1/ Relocating entire industries takes time, and costs money and energy 2/ Living in remote sunny locations (where few people are) needs a good transport system (for food and water) - and these are areas most exposed to climate change.
Most of these are economic points, indeed. But this is because energy is an integral part of the economy—as I said, I think it’s more useful of seeing money as a way of allocating goods and services that are produced with energy. This is a view usually held by heterodox economists, so most people have not heard of it—as mainstream economists don’t include natural resources as an input of their models. But it fits rather well with data, so seeing the economy as a material phenomenon helps immensely. So when I say investment, it’s not just a matter of printing more money, it’s a matter of dedicating real materials and energy towards the transition (at the expense of other uses).
It’s also worth remembering that investment in already falling short of what is needed in the energy sector, like for the US grid(see post 2). BloombergNEF puts the bill at $173 trillions − 2 times world GDP. Moreover, in the past, a recession occurred when energy prices reached 10% of GDP, so the transition cannot cost too much. This is why I don’t think investment can get that high.
I’m not trying to do another IAM—I do not have the skills for that. However, I can point out toward some erroneous assumptions they have: they tend to take GDP as an external input; to have improvements in energy effiency going waaay beyond anything observed in the past; and they also don’t model limits on minerals (time to deploy, energy required). These are really strong limits for me.
If you want actual numbers, I personally found that the most complete work was the GTK report (for numbers of “what is required”) and the MEDEAS model (for modelling).
For land use and hydrogen, some models try to integrate that, yes. But there are limits to these numbers, detailed in the GTK report—for instance, they find that the number of vehicles to be replaced (H2 and EV) have been underestimated in previous studies. For land use, for instance, just to replace the feedstock for plastics and petrochemicals, you’d need half of all sustainable biomass production by 2030, according to an IEA scenario. This is beyond anything reasonable, in my opinion.
I’d like to imagine that GDP could increase with a stagnation in energy production and an increase in energy efficiency making up for that. But what happened in 2008 doesn’t seem to point that way: even a relative stagnation in oil production led to prices going from $20 to $140 in 6 years, a main factor in the great financial crisis. Even then, efficiency cannot grow indefinitely, as it is subject to diminishing returns.
GDP being constant would still lead to problems too, since the amount of interest to be paid would still grow. Debt defaults would then increase and this could lead to bad results, like in 2008. See here for that.
This paper was indeed interesting, thanks. I also think more “granular” technologies are important, as less vulnerable to trade disruptions. However, while I don’t worry about the deployment of solar panels, I’m more worried about the interconnections they have with many “lumpy” processes that are much harder to change (like the paper itself points out). For production: mines, factories, furnaces for smelting metals, road transport by trucks… All of which take quite some time to change. Another big one that takes time to expand is the electricity grid (for solar and wind), especially as the sunniest and windiest location are further away from cities.
We already know how to solve the blackouts problem via dedicated generation (or storage) for high-impact sectors. In a renewable economy, very large amounts of energy are available very cheaply at certain times, so for instance a factory with a 1-day battery that can produce at night before sunny days is able to work nearly as efficiently as they do now. You aren’t actually relocating very much of the economy (only very heavy industry) and this constantly relocates towards incidentally-sunnier countries anyway for labor-cost reasons.
I’m not an economist so I don’t know that it’s pointful to get into a long debate about economics, but it’s pretty clear from how governments can reshape the economy during wartime implies that they have tremendous capacity to restructure the economy when they want to. Your analysis doesn’t make sense to me because green tech is something that makes energy; it’s an energy loan, not an energy expenditure.
Investment in a green transition solves much of the long-term underinvestment problem at the same time, so the historic underinvestment is not really an additive factor.
Good IAMs don’t take GDP as an external input, and the fact that one you cite does is a bad sign. I had not heard of this IAM before (I work around IAMs professionally but don’t code them myself), but it doesn’t seem to understand the basics of the laws of supply and demand, assumes fixed demand and then complains when this can’t be fulfilled. This means it supports your point that GDP is suppressed, but doesn’t qualify by how much. It also assumes, for instance, that it is impossible to increase recycling rates. The possibility of recycling largely solves your point c), since recycling requires no additional land and less energy than we currently spend making plastic—it’s simply that the processing is not financially incentivised by the low cost of oil. The GTK report isn’t an academic document and doesn’t have an obvious IAM attached.
I’m unclear why you jump from cars to plastic. At any rate, only the waste fraction plus the growth in the number of vehicles (or plastic) requires new material, the rest can be recycled. There appears to just be a disagreement between two models over the number of vehicles in existence at the moment, not a modelling discrepancy.
I don’t think its wise to generalise from 2008 to the future of the world, but I also don’t know enough to argue about this.
Then again, thanks for these points, it’s interesting to exchange with you.
For storage, I agree that what you describe could be an option if batteries continue to get much cheaper and better. However, getting 1 night of batteries for factories would still be more energy-costly compared to what we do today (because of 60%-80% round-trip efficiency, the need for building overcapacity, additional mineral extraction, and the energy cost making batteries). So we’d have to use more energy to do the same thing. I agree that the “net energy we get back” would still be net positive, but the reason I mention the energy cost of green technology is because of the EROI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), that has to be high (10-12) to sustain a complex civilization.
Governments can make wartime economies to handle energy differently, yes, and probably will. However, getting to that point would mean a very different world order. This would have probably been caused by a serious economic crisis. But we’d be in the realm of systemic risks described in post 2. What history taught us is that for a war economy to go on, you need an external enemy (and maybe an internal one too). This could have serious implications, like countries with resources (oil, gas, coal, metals, phosphorus) could decide to keep these resources for themselves. Of course, this would mean a serious energy descent for countries that are dependent on trade, and that don’t have an army big enough to weigh in.
I didn’t express myself clearly, sorry. What I say isn’t that “with the current amount of investment in energy, we won’t have enough for the transition, so we should need more for green energy”. What I’m saying is “it’s probably not possible to have a much bigger investment capacity than we have now”. Oil prices are already in a spot where they oscillate between “too high for consumers” and “too low for energy companies”, which is unsustainable—so green energy probably cannot afford to be much more expensive than oil (well, at least if we are to keep the current economic system).
Oh, these are interesting feedbacks. These are important limits to the MEDEAS model, thanks for pointing them out. What do you think of the pitfalls of most current IAMs it points out in the introduction? Do you know of an energy transition model that avoid them? For instance, I’m often wary of their very high efficiency rates.
Recycling is an option and can be improved, absolutely. However, it cannot go to 100%: the output is often of lower quality (“downcycling”), and metals have a very low recycling rate when dispersed in high-tech products (and there are more and more of them). There’s a section on that here.
The GTK report doesn’t have an IAM, no. It doesn’t try to answer the question “how fast should renewable energy grow?”, but rather asks “Is that at all possible?”. It’s not from academia, but I think it makes good points that I’d like to have seen adressed everywhere.
Sorry, I switched from cars to plastics because you said that land use wasn’t that big of a problem, so I pointed to an area where land is a problem, as this should influence the amount of biofuels available for cars. Recycling is possible, but plastics tend to downcycle pretty quickly.
Why shouldn’t we generalize from what happened in 2008? The finance system didn’t change that much, it patched a few things but still goes through the same “boom and bust” cycle. The financial system was hours away from a paralysisin 2008 - surely such an event would influence the future a lot, since most of the economy co-evolved with the financial system. A similar event might get us into the systemic risks described in post 2. We can of course say that “we’ll find a solution”, but that’s assuming the problem away.
Ok, I can agree that factories can move rather quickly—I’d also argue China is a special case as it has the ability of planning and doing things very quickly, I don’t worry that much about them for the future.
However, what I’m worried about is that many important elements of our industrial system are not competitive to replace with renewables (trucks, ships, blast furnaces for steel, cement and other metals), and this is likely to stay so for quite some time. Research might improve but we’re far from having a similar cost. Carbon prices could help but high-heat manufacturing has razor-thin margins and many politicians don’t want to burden the sector by fear of delocalization. Plus, it’s really hard to match the properties of coal.
So, unless alternatives get more competitive very fast, it’s likely that they won’t get replaced until fossil fuels get much more expensive. However, by the time that happens, this would probably mean we have a financial crisis on our hands. This means the transition would have to be done in a context when revenues are dwindling, trust in the future is low (which impacts investment and debt), and the prices of energy (to build the factory) are through the roof. I think it’s unlikely that we can transition fast enough in such a context.
I mean, imagine oil actually peaked in 2018 (a very serious possibility), and we had to make the transition now. Do you think that a transition would be possible, at the scale required?
Yes, I think our exchange has been fruitful and thought-provoking. Battery-wise: I think this is why I focus on energy cost variability rather than absolute energy cost, energy may well have a negative cost at some times but very large at others. The analyses of the effects of these are different. Civilisation requires a large energy surplus, but I don’t see any reason to assume that the EROI specifically needs to be any value above 1. If I change the unit of the solar cell (let’s say EROI 10) to a solar-powered solar cell factory (EROI = 100 because the first 10x is all reinvested) then that same physical system suddenly passes your test. I don’t see what research you were citing here in the first place, but suspect it still suffers this problem.
I think both my comments about a war-footing and comments about China are similar: the Chinese government basically does what most governments do during wartime all the time. If it became obvious that the economy required us to do more government-led organisation (which I gather you think it does), I think we would. Climate change can have the same impact as an external enemy in these considerations, and there’s some evidence that it psychologically does act this way.
I think I got what you were trying to say, but I haven’t tended to respond fully to your comments on oil prices because I want to get out of oil in basically all cases, avoiding this problem altogether. As above, I don’t think we are dependent on oil to make the transition (it’s a very expensive form of energy anyway). It strikes me incidentally that your too-low/too-high price analysis won’t hold up to including inflation.
I guess most of these are criticisms are correct statements, it’s just very easy to list effects that models of the global economy don’t have but hard to evaluate which missing factors are really important. I don’t fully understand the objection to the use of price as a medium of scarcity, but it’s also not my field.
Because I come at this from a climate change perspective, my baseline assumption is that we will have to decarbonise everything in about the next two decades anyway, which solves many of these problems. Your angle on this is essentially a side-concern that happens to pull in the same direction There will probably be some cost to this decarbonisation, as you say, but actually not that much to the whole of society. There are even arguments, somewhat related to your points about the scarcity of resources for existing infrastructure combined with the fact that renewable energy is less constrained by this, that the cost of transition is actually negative, as in this study https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(22)00410-X. The first-mover cost on industry is overcome by combining carbon tax with carbon border adjustments, hopefully the EU will impose these both soon and other states will follow. I sincerely believe we can do this transition, starting now!
I’m curious, what would make you consider an option “we do not manage to do an energy transition” as a possible scenario?
I agree that I don’t worry that much about China for this reason. China is able to do this because it has a goal of becoming n°1 and surpassing the US within 30 years—but as soon as it is less dependent on money from rich western countries, well, I’m not sure it will continue to supply resources and metals (controls >60-70% of refining) and solar panels in the same terms. I fail to envision a scenario where every nation is in”war economy” state but international cooperation and trade go on as usual.
We are very dependent on oil to make a transition because almost all (>99%) mining trucks, ships, long-distance trucks depend on oil. Same goes for plastic production and making asphalt. This indidentally means that oil is currently necessary for the extraction and transport of almost of all the world’s primary energy (solar panels and windmills are transported by road, as is coal). We could switch to electric trucks or stuff like that (at what scale? with what materials?), but by the time >50% of global transport changes (when?), every price increase in oil will affect the availablility of the rest of energy sources.
I don’t base myself on prices as a reference for scarcity because the relationship between oil prices and production looks like this:
(by the way, see here for only oil prices but inflation-adjusted)
Do you have sources for the betterment of the financial system? I know there are more regulations since 2008 and several patches have been applied, but from what I got it still seems that the root causes of the problem are still there (no separation between commercial and investment banking, finance so complex pretty much nobody understands it completely, focus on short-term profit—at least that’s what I got from summaries of this book).
Oh, yeah I quoted this study in post 1. But it assumes solar and wind growth continuing without taking into account stuff like minerals, deployment time, land, political opposition… John Halstead mentions in his recent report (p.53) that on a 27 countries sample, “the growth of renewables is only accelerating in 5 countries, is stable in 11 and is stalling in 11”. “Declining costs of technologies have already led to a relatively high growth in the OECD, although currently this growth is becoming constrained on sociotechnical and political rather than economic grounds”.
For the EROI, this is more complicated than that (which I why I didn’t talked much about it in the main post). I have written two section on it in the additional doc: why what matters for societies is the “energy surplus” and “what is the minimal EROI of society” (I just updated it to explain why you need 3:1 for transportation). But a basic answer is that your argument would work if you could make an infinite supply of solar panels. However, there are limits in the number of panels we can do: number of workers available, financial investment, number of adequate locations at a cheap enough price, materials for the panels and batteries, money that can be invested to expand the electric grid… So the panels we do make in these limited quantities must be good enough to power the rest of society—or it would be barely worth the investement.
PS: I just came across you April post—loved it! I really had a good laugh here :)
Three scenarios where we do not make a green transition: Firstly, we are structurally prevented by government forces, for instance, in many countries there is difficulty in obtaining planning permission to get renewables in place, or have perverse tax incentives (gas cheaper than electricity for instance) that make the transition difficult. Both of these are currently happening in the UK, but not enough to resist the pull of renewables completely! Secondly, energy demand takes off so quickly (perhaps due to AI) that we expand green power without reducing FF, until the sort of problem you indicate occurs. Third, something disrupts the global supply chain that renewables currently depend on. However all of these seem likely to be self-limiting because if the situation really got that pressing, you’d assume governments and society would adapt to fix them unless there’s a bad actor or civilizational collapse.
International trade between allies does very well in a war though, and even enemies keep trading through many wars. I’m not entirely sure who the enemy is in this case.
Currently true, but the more true it is, the stronger the incentive will be to switch over quickly when oil prices rise. I anticipate a very quick switchover because it looks like the advent of affordable electric trucks will align closely with (and usually combines with) the advent of driverless technology, meaning the two biggest costs of trucking can be slashed simultaneously by changing over
Oh right—yes, this is because production can be freely moved within reason. Basically we’re not yet in the regime where oil is being treated as a scarce resource. We may indeed regret this in centuries to come, though I suspect we’ll find replacements.
The big legislation is the Besel III rules, which have been continuously strengthened since the crash, regulating the fraction of money banks need to hold in different forms. It’s not perfect (some people think the classification of money doesn’t really match the risks) but it’s definitely tighter than it was https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2020-may-supervision-and-regulation-report-banking-system-conditions.htm There are also lots of stress-tests carried out on institutions to see if they’d collapse in particular circumstances, which should account for inter-departmental ignorance in banks. I haven’t read that book though and can’t comment in detail.
There clearly are limits to the extent of renewable deployment, but I’m unconvinced that they have been seen so far. Halstead is inaccurately reading Cherp et al 2021, since he restricts his analyses to only the solar PV data for only the subset of samples that are classified into these three categories. The study analyses 60 countries and fails to classify the majority of them for either solar or onshore wind. In addition to the 5 accelerating PV countries there are 6 different countries accelerating onshore wind. The table remarks that 4 stable onshore wind countries have substantial offshore wind, but does not investigate this in detail. In criticism of the study itself, the three “poster-child” countries with stalling renewable energy deployment in 2019 all showed a notable deployment in the supposedly stalled renewable energy by 2021. (New Zealand onshore wind: 2.26 → 2.64 TWh; Spain solar 15.1 → 26.8 TWh – an 80% increase in 2 years; Germany solar: 44.9 ->49.0 TWh, OurWorldInData). This happened during COVID, and against the long-term trend of these countries reducing overall electricity usage. When deployment becomes variable, for sociopolitical or megaproject reasons, the sigmoid function assumed in this study only allows for negative temporary deviation from exponential growth and assumes that any deviation is locked in indefinitely. In reality, laws restricting e.g. onshore wind can disappear, returning us to an exponential growth phase.
Yes, I agree there are practical problems with basing society on 1.1 EROI solar cells. A lot of this discussion is really “how can we work out the actual EROI from the quoted EROI only looking at a bit of the system”. Infrastructural costs should definitely be included in these analyses, however I think they’re also quite hard to estimate because you need to know how long your infrastructure will last both from degradation and from being made irrelevant.
Sorry for the long wait! I was on a vacation. The points you put forward are important, if think all three scenarios you point out could happen, especially combined. To rephrase what you said, there are:
Systemic lock-ins, where the dominant actors prevent the arising of other solutions. I think another factor is implicit, it’s that we know how to use fossil fuels everywhere, so most of the time it’s the safest bet in industry or transportation. Of course, it’s not preventing a transition, but it’s slowing it down seriously. More on that here (p. 75).For instance, the European Commission wants to allow the use of coal and gas for green hydrogen.
Public opposition, you’re right. In say Poland or France there is quite some opposition to windmills (I’ve seen that a legal complaint was filed for 7 out of 10 windmills projects in France).
Energy consumption still going up, and fast. If the global economy continues to grow at about 3.0% per year (although it could be less), we will consume as much energy and materials in the next ∼30 years as we did cumulatively in the past 10,000. Also, I’d be more optimistic if renewables were actually reducing fossil fuel use, instead of just adding up to it.
Supply chains breaking down. Talking about these below. A long enough recession could trigger this, as said in post 2.
“However all of these seem likely to be self-limiting because if the situation really got that pressing, you’d assume governments and society would adapt to fix them unless there’s a bad actor or civilizational collapse”
I think this is where we have probably a different view on things. “Fixing the situation” requires several components, some of them being international cooperation for trade and goods, trust in the future (for investment) and a long-term vision (for making the right technological choices). These elements are in decline, at least in the US or Europe. Not for China though, as you said, but I’d argue it is an outlier.
If, say, France had to transition in a hurry toward renewables within the next 10 years, it would be entirely dependent of China, on which >80% of the solar panels manufacturing depends. Or on Chile or Australia for copper or lithium. It doesn’t have the resources to do that locally. Building locally a lot of infrastructure requires a lot of money and competent workers—and these limits are already slowing down the buildup and maintenance of French nuclear plants. Acquiring the resources abroad relies on a working banking system, Euro not being devaluated, and China not deciding to greatly increase the prices of metals or windmills. We can assume none of this will happen, of course, but this is a real risk.
I mentioned wars affecting international trades specifically because of the war in Ukraine—I mean, this has quite an impact on energy already.
As said above, a quick switch relies on quite a number of things—and the scale of stuff to replace is really big. Industrial processes have quite some inertia, even with an incentive—for instance, the amount of metals required by 2030 for the energy transition is already unrealistic given the current mining pipelines, according to an Eurometaux report. It’s just that mining takes time to deploy.
For trucks specifically, they’re currently under production, so we don’t know yet how affordable they will be—this depend on the lifetime of the battery and how often it has to be changed (400km range is also about half the preferred range for a regular class 8 truck, and charging time would be between 2.5h and 9.5h long). Driverless technology, while good on the paper, would require a lot of data for lidar and stuff like that: 100 millions vehicles would require 230 exabytes of data worldwide, every month. That’s the equivalent on our networks of 19 times the size of our current internet. (French source, but I can translate if you want).
Interesting, I had not seen this piece of legislation. This is better than what I had in mind. Of course, as you said, this doesn’t solve everything (some are pointing out that it has inadvertently led to increased risk-taking by borrowers) but it’s something.
However, what I’m warning against is a “run on the bank” scenario, where so much money is loaned that not everything can be repaid (because not enough energy and materials t produce everything). When it’s widely known that not everybody will get their money back, people and investors will rush in to get back what they can. There’s also the fact that interest rates would still grow in a stagnating economy, leading to an ever-increasing number of payment defaults. These problems would still arise even with a healthier finance system than in 2008.
What you are saying is interesting—I had not in mind these limitations for the Halstead report, and Cherp. This is good to know, thanks. Do the exemples you give really rule out what Cherp says, though? Spain had a huge increase in solar and wind, yes, but NZ is not that impressive, and Germany had more solar but less wind (graphs for wind and solar). Is that enough to invalidate their conclusions of a “not fast enough growth rate”? This mitigates the conclusion a bit, indeed, but I’m not sure this means that a fast enough growth rate will be reached overall.
Even if we suppose it does, the current growth curve is for intermittent electricity production. This is for replacing nuclear and gas and coal. What matters in my eyes, however, is the growth rate for replacing long-haul trucks, and metal smelting, and cement production, and natural gas fertilizers, and steel production, and plastics. These ones are necessary too to build and maintain renewables (and the rest of industrial society), but they are still at very, very low growth-rates, since they barely started. Not sure they can increase fast enough.
For EROI, I agree that I’d really like calculations of the “actual EROI”, encompassing all the societal and polotical structures required for extracting energy, and taking all the infrastructure into account. As you said, it’s devilishly hard to calculate.
In the meantime, what I’m basing myself on is that most of the past societies had quite a high EROI (>10), including hunter-gatherers and agrarian societies (source, page 42). This surplus would allow for the many things a society needs (taking care of children and the ederly, providing for non-productive elites and administration and armies). So it’s uncertain we can really go below that, especially as we are a much more complex society.
Even if we disagree on the possibility of a continued energy descent, I think we can agree that an energy transition, especially sudden, would have a wide range of political, social, economic and geopolitical consequences. The continuation of “business as usual” is rather uncertain under these prospects, and I think this neglected by forecasters and EA models of the future.
Yes, I’ve also been busy and I think the conversation is getting hard to follow and delivering diminishing returns. But to address a few points:
I think we are mostly in agreement that these scenarios are both bad and plausible, but disagree about the badness and plausibility. However on the second point, the paper you quote is simply not providing enough evidence of its point. Potentially 40 or so years of constant consumption would pass this test, but you should not assume that consumption of energy or resources is constant per GDP, as it simply hasn’t been in recent history. The growth in energy consumption the last few decades seems to have been linear rather than exponenetial, but forcing it into exponential form gives an average 1.7% average growth this century https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution. Material consumption of, e.g. cement seems to have flatlined recently (as it is mostly done in China), and is also not exponential for any real stretch of time https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46455844. I don’t know very much about supply chain disruption, but I definitely don’t feel you’ve demonstrated that they can persist for many years. There’s quite a strong financial incentive to sort them out and most of the disruptions I can think of seem either based on sanctions or to resolve in around a year. I’d be interested to see any historic examples you have. My historic counter-example would be guano, a slowly-renewing natural resource that was required agriculturally and at risk of depletion, but saved by the invention of the Haber process https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/when-the-western-world-ran-on-guano.
While I agree that France would struggle to go renewable all on its own, I am sure it can go renewable without the aid of any single other continent, given the diverse range of ways of building renewables. I don’t really see a situation where Europe would be cut off from all continents even if perhaps a few countries would put up trade barriers. As we see with oil from Russia going to India now, every time you impose a trade barrier, the price of the goods shifts and to tempt other countries to participate in trade.
Analyses of the cost comparison of electric trucks are still crude, but do exist already. The possibly-biased-electric ICCT concludes that in many European cities we may be at price parity (due to existing subsidies) under reasonable assumptions about electricity and diesel prices https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/tco-battery-diesel-delivery-trucks-jun2022.pdf. While battery swapping isn’t yet a thing, it probably will be soon for large trucking firms, which eliminates the charging problem. I don’t understand why the lidar data needs to be stored, most of the work can be done locally and you can overwrite it minute-by-minute, can’t you?
I don’t really know what to think about this banking problem, it feels like it can be treaded as a separate issue to the materials problem in a digital economy though.
I think the emerging technologies (electric trucks etc) have extremely high (but variable) growth rates because they have such low current penetration. But the combination means that we can’t estimate the long-term trends very well. Cherp’s technique, quite wisely, doesn’t even try. I fundamentally don’t think that the energy economics of a solarpunk post-scarcity future will necessarily have much in common with pre-agrarian society. We are not primarily talking about the EROI of food production here, which would dominate this consideration.
We do indeed agree on your final points. I definitely don’t look towards a business-as-usual future! More work developing other futures is very valuable. I just think it’s important to be clear when you’re discussing a worst-case scenario verses a likely scenario, and to realise that society has a lot of self-repair mechanisms that toy models miss out.
Oh, great to hear from you ! How have you been doing ?
Here are my answers to these points. I must admit that yeah, we have a different view on things—which is good as I learn a lot of stuff -, but I feel like I could explain better the extent of our predicament.
I have found this podcast episode which should explain why I am still worried about all of that, and deeply worried. Now, it has exagerations on a number of points, and some of the data isn’t the most recent, I absolutely agree, but damn, overall I really have trouble seeing how to solve all the issues she points out.
Now for the individual points:
Thanks for pointing out the limits in Cherp et al. It’s useful to know that, energy production is still going up to some extent—not fast enough, but still up.
Energy consumption going up. You are right that we probably won’t consume as much energy and materials in the next ∼30 years as we did in the past 10,000 - that was indeed an exageration, sorry. But the overall amount of energy consumed is still going up, which is a problem.
Even by accepting the hypothesis that most of the world economies will be service-based in the future (which begs the question of where industry will be done), like rich countries, a recent report estimates that this scenario, in my eyes optimistic, would still lead to an energy demand around 780-950 EJ in 2080, so 35-65% higher than in 2019.
As for materials, there is arecouplingof materials and economic growth, meaning we use more and more materials per point of GDP, at the moment when the economy was supposed to be dematerialized with the advent of the Internet. This trend is expected to worsen with a metal-based energy transition.
For me, the risk of supply chains breaking down isn’t that it lasts for several years. It’s that such a breakdown would itself have terrible consequences even for a short period—and transforming deeply society.
The food autonomy of cities in France is of about 2%. Meaning 98% of the food comes from elsewhere (even the local food goes elsewhere—you can eat it in case of a crisis but most of it is very specialized, like the region of Bordeaux mostly produces wine). Let’s say that the diesel supply were to suddenly stop (because of a war, an embargo, one country broking an exclusive trade deal with an oil producer at the expense of others). In such case, trucks stop running and the food supply stops. Few cities have stocks, so within a few weeks you risk seeing a lot of people starving.
Food wouldn’t be the only impact. Trucks are also used for construction and maintenance. Almost every item that goes out from a factory, almost any good is transported via a (diesel) truck. Not only would this trigger mass unemployment pretty quickly, but these goods are everything that get industrial civilization working. This includes medicine that goes into hospitals. Supermarkets only have a few days or weeks of supply. Chlorine to make water drinkable is transported by trucks. Firefighters and the police and public bus and cars would be stopped too.
This is likely to last until electric trucks are widespread. Of course, these can be competitive when it comes to price right now, but this doesn’ t mean that they will be in a world:
With a much more fierce competition for scarcer minerals (especially lithium)
Where building the truck will be made at 100% with renewable electricity or green hydrogen (such a process doesn’t exist yet).
And in any case, scaling up trucks from basically 0% today to at least 70-80% is going to take quite some time—at least 20-30 years I think, if I look at the Hirsch report.
(for self-driving cars, the issue is not data storage, but the use of could technologies that go heavy on the networks)
Now, the scenario of diesel supply being suddenly cut out might seem unreasonable. People will try to adapt to some extent. But even if there is just an overall reduction, this means that some people in some countries will have it, and some others won’t. Not every region in the world can afford ever-more expensive oil, or electric trucks. Things won’t go well for these last ones.
Same if the electricity supply breaks down (because it’s winter, it’s cold, renewables cannot match demand, and there is a blackout). In such a case, electricity is necessary for factories, for the water supply of cities, for the entire financial system (like credit cards), and for oil and gas transport and extraction.
Of course, such kinds of breakdown would deeply affect energy production and geopolitics and wouldn’t be “solved” within a year.
The examples I have are Cuba and North Korea, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, where half the oil supply was suddenly being cut, with different results I detail in post 2 (and hundreds of thousands dead in North Korea). But compared to rich countries, these two still had a much higher share of the population doing some kind of farming and food production, and were more autonomous for basic needs. So our current situation, with most of the population in Europe and North America being incapable of providing their own needs and depending on continuous long-distance transportation, is rather unprecedented.
Although there are other examples of collapse in the world, like Lebanon, Syria, Venezuela, or more recently Sri Lanka. So I wouldn’t rule that out.
I have similar worries about the banking problem, because it’s one pathway to supply chain disruption (and I don’t see it as a really separate issue, given the strong relationship between energy and economic growth). By itself it is worrying.
I am not saying all of that is unavoidable. I don’t think it is, because as you said there are self-repair mechanisms that could be able to avoid the worst outcomes in many regions. But the possibility is, in my eyes, likely enough to warrant building some lifeboats, just in case.
I’ve been quite stressed, for reasons other than lack of materials! How about you?
I’m not particularly impressed by the podcast. It seems to lack any imagination in working out how to decarbonise the construction of renewable energy itself, which is not generally regarded as a fundamental problem (as opposed to being slightly expensive to transition).
Exponential energy consumption increase cannot be delivered for long, by any means. But renewable power can easily sustain a doubling of current power consumption.
We have a diesel crunch at the moment in Europe, meaning we are eating into our stockpiles, however all countries still have more than 61 days of consumption or import stockpiled, so considerably more than a week! Some states are less than the 90 days of imports required though. We would see factories shut down due to cost long before we started killing off food transport, so in practice this would last longer.
Agree that the rollout of electric vehicles will be expensive and will take time. But I hope that we will also reduce the number of cars required by carsharing, which autonomous vehicles makes easier. As we transition to renewable power, the prices of fossil fuels stabilises as demand is reduced. This makes greening harder, but diffuses the problem you foresee with food distribution.
5Tb an hour of data doesn’t seem like that much, particularly after Moore’s law kicks in!
A fully renewable grid well realistically require some fossil backup for the next few decades while we get hydrogen sorted. However there price of this should also stabilise, as above.
I guess I’m unclear what the lifeboats you suggest are. I agree that on the margin more people should stockpile food, and possibly more in general. I don’t know that it’s true that stockpiling, say, copper or lithium is likely to be a wise investment: probably the market is already aware of the needs for these in the future, and to make an appreciable price signal to mine more would be very expensive. There are government stockpiles of quite a few things in developed nations; while developing nations should also stockpile more I am an ideal world, it’s not clear how high a priority that is compared to tackling current, definite problems.
Ah, sorry to hear you’ve been stressed. The FTX debacle doesn’t arrange things (I myself have a 6-months in indefinite hold because of that).
I’m not particularly impressed by the podcast. It seems to lack any imagination in working out how to decarbonise the construction of renewable energy itself, which is not generally regarded as a fundamental problem (as opposed to being slightly expensive to transition).
I’m kind of disappointed that you handwave all the information in this podcast with a “lack of imagination”.
I feel a bit like if I’d been told “don’t worry, everything will sort itself out”. Well, what if it doesn’t ? I’m not asking for a scenario in which everything turns to be fine because this or this technology exists. I know it’s a possibility. I’m wondering if things will really turn out that way.
I read the book Life after fossil fuels and it felt to me that she really tried to take a look at the solutions proposed, in more depth than almost anyone I’ve seen. Anything you can think of is probably on her website Energy skeptic, but it’s more of a mess (and of course, pessimistic, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise).
But even if we somehow find a solution to replace almost all our fossil-based industrial system by something powered by intermittent electricity (the biggest ‘if’ in any sentence), I am still worrying over several points :
Time constraints
It would take time to do research and put into place these solutions. Replacing all of our industrial system that took many decades to build would take loads of time.
Renewables, so far, can replace electricity production. But if needs more complex supply chains to go beyond that (batteries, which needs mines that take time to be opened).
Right now less than 1% of truck transportation, ship transportation, cement making, steel making, most metal smelting, fertilizer production, mineral extraction, is made using electricity (and I’m not even talking about renewable electricity)
This means that until, say, 70% of the infrastructure switches to being powered by renewables, increases in oil, gas and coal prices (or at least decreases in availability) will have a huge impact on the affordability on the tranport of almost all commodities (leading to increase in prices in many place), and on food production.
Question 1 : How long do you think it will take to do the switch from <1% to 70% renewable, for these infrastructure I talked about ?
Question 2: In the meantime, wouldn’t these constraints risk putting a limit on economic growth for quite an extended period ?
About your other points:
We can leave EROI out of the debate for now, I think, we do not have the same ways to use it so it complicates things (and the man in the tweets you referred to as well, since my main point is rather that a society needs a high EROI to maintain its complexity).
It sounds unlikely that the end system would provide services as cheap and in a volume as large as is currently done by using abundant and energy dense fossil fuels. Simply, a sustainable system would have more limits (constraints of land for plastic, less or no specialty metals, decliningore grades, storage that requires a lot of materials, water constrained by climate change). Won’t that impact economic growth ?
When I talk about lifeboats, I’m talking about the fact that, for instance, our current food system is extremely dependent on many inputs: a steady flow of oil, a working financial system, a steady flow of natural gas from fertilizers , a steady flow of phosphorus, a steady flow of water… Of course, I can assume that all of this can keep working perfectly fine in the future. But what happens if one of these fails? I’m not talking just about stockpiling (even though 60 days of diesel is a start). I’m thinking about finding ways to make the agricultural system less dependant on energy and the economic system—because we won’t be able to rehaul that in 61 days.
I’m sorry your situation has deteriorated from the FTX scandal, that must be very difficult. A lot of people have it much worse than me!
I don’t see this as an argument between “everything will turn out fine” and “things will end badly”, but “things will go badly for very specific reasons to do with materials accessibility” and “materials accessibility is not the limiting factor”. I consider something a lack of imagination where every aspect of the solution exists, but for cost reasons we don’t currently combine them in most supply chains. Entirely electrified car factories already exist https://www.hyundai.news/eu/articles/press-releases/gone-green-hyundais-first-factory-powered-by-100-percent-renewable-energy.html. I haven’t read Alice Friedmann’s book, but her website seems replete with the time-lacking EROI error that we discussed above, as well as an inability to see that our current production chain is not the only way we can go about manufacturing things (for instance, there are plenty of sulfur sources appart from oil, it’s just we currently exploit a byproduct of oil manufacture). I think I’m still waiting for historic examples where a material shortage has resulted in anything more than temporary economic slowdown and protests against corrupt regimes. The gilet jaunes protests are the closest I can think of, which hasn’t come close to civilisation-threatening. Maybe if there were a clearer pipeline from this to fascism.
Coal is a plentiful resource, and in the worst-case energy crunch, would be used as a substitute for oil and gas. We see some of this happening in electricity in Europe at the moment. You can make a near-kerosene product out of coal, which with some lubricating materials should be adaptable for diesel use in extremis https://www.technologyreview.com/2006/04/19/39349/clean-diesel-from-coal/. This would be environmentally devastating and somewhat expensive, but not really more civilisation-threatening than climate change in general. The general point, that models need to account for a huge range of ways we can substitute one material for another, is the fundamental weakness of this argument.
q1) There are an number of studies showing that replacing the a very large fraction of the grid with variable energy is achievable with current technology, some are summarised in this metastudy https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00695-4. Notably all of these studies suggest a lower cost than the current wholesale cost of electricity in Europe! The pace at which this can be done is a normal subject for the IAMs that you so distrust, which at least in some models is done before 2050, though it’s very inconsistent—many scenarios aiming for 1.5C that never reach 70% electrification. They usually reach more than 70% renewable though, soon after 2040. I may have mislead you above with my focus on electrification; several areas of society are projected to remain liquid-based (if biofuel/hydrogen) for some time in a lot of IAMs, though I’m personally skeptical about this. I’ve plotted the fraction of energy from renewable sources and the fraction of energy use from electricity in the AR6 database of scenarios classified as C1 (low overshoot of 1.5C) below.
The question normally is whether society will accept the costs of bringing about change at the necessary speed, but since in your scenarios the cost of FFs is much higher than most IAMs assume, the answer is basically “yes, though not through free choice”. The fact that we restrict FF use because of lack of availability rather than a carbon tax shouldn’t make a big difference to the difficulty of decarbonising.
q2) Yes, I think a lower rate of growth is likely than in an ideal world without material/oil constraints. But it’s not clear that growth is negative, nor that slower growth, particularly in developed nations, is that bad. Would high resource costs trigger civilizational collapse? Even with higher fuel prices, the declining fraction of wealth spent on food has a ways to go before we reach anything comparable to, say, the 1950s, so I find it hard to see a mechanism for anything dramatic. While energy is used in making food, it’s not the dominant factor, and over long time periods we see the correlation between oil price and food price is not that strong https://ourworldindata.org/food-prices. Economically unfortunate, sure, but not an extinction risk.
Other than specific problems with lithium and copper, it’s not clear to me that we have a problem with total material lack, simply that we don’t recycle enough or make use of agricultural waste. More effort would go towards plastic recycling if the price point of oil were higher. Similarly there is a plentiful supply of plant-food minerals that are currently pumped from rocks to our faeces to the sea.
Backups to provide food in the event of a protracted energy crash is an interesting question. As above, I don’t expect anything like a 1:1 relation from the cost of energy, but in combination with climate variability and geopolitical factors it’s possible to envisage a real crunch on availability. I feel like the solutions are very dependent on how long we want to do this for and what fraction of the world needs to be sustained this way. But the discussion of various forms of permaculture and nutrient-recycling, while interesting, should probably be handled elsewhere (and by people who know more about it than I do). Generally, working on better recycling does seem like an under-utilised EA cause area that would solve a number of these problems, and is probably cheaper to begin sooner rather than later. I don’t think I need to agree with very many of your above points to agree with this as the process is energy-saving and also protects the environment/enables more agriculture by avoiding mining.
You may be glad to note that on several occasions when writing my responses I have had cause to exclaim “he’s less wrong than I thought!” I think this is all anyone can really ask for in an internet argument.
Since you are good at challenging my position, maybe you could find some mistakes that would help improve the post. I talk about substitution and coal and transition scenarios and and whether adaptation is possible.
“I consider something a lack of imagination where every aspect of the solution exists, but for cost reasons we don’t currently combine them in most supply chains.”
For me, the core issue is scale. Every individual aspect of the solution might exist, and can work in a small system, but does that mean it can scale up to what our industrial society requires? Or worse, to the ever-increasing requirements of economic growth?
There are other ways of manufacturing things, yes. But there are also constraints of time and investment: right now, for materials this is the main constraint, since a mine takes on average 16 years to go from exploration to production. Several organizations, like the World Bank, the IEA, the IMF, McKinsey and Company and Eurometaux have all issued reports warning of this growing problem.
″ Entirely electrified car factories already exist”
Ah, I had not seen that, good point. Plus, they seemed to have done a lot of efficiency.
Does the materials that are used in the factory (metals, plastics) have been produced with renewables as well ? I haven’t seen that info in the article.
“I think I’m still waiting for historic examples where a material shortage has resulted in anything more than temporary economic slowdown and protests against corrupt regimes. The gilet jaunes protests are the closest I can think of, which hasn’t come close to civilisation-threatening. Maybe if there were a clearer pipeline from this to fascism.”
It’s hard to pinpoint for historical examples at the global level, since a feature of our current civilization is interconnectedness. Every time a material shortage arised somewhere, it was possible to compensate with the production somewhere else (especially for oil). This means that in the last 70 years we haven’t really tested yet a situation where oil is lacking everywhere, over an extended period.
Still, there are some analysts asserting that oil depletion in Syria and Venezuela were a serious factor in the collapse of these states. Of course, the economy of these states was highly reliant on oil, so a peak had more of a local impact. But I suppose one could make the case that our global economy is also extremely dependent on oil and fossil fuels at large, given the tight relationship between energy and GDP, so the analogy would hold out.
As for a pipeline to fascism, it seems pretty straightforward: declining revenues, rising inequalities (as is happening right now as well), loss of trust in institutions, increasing polarization (boosted by mass media and social networks)…
A crucial factor would be rising food prices, especially, as you said, since geopolitcial factors and climate change would weigh in. The Our World in data article is interesting and shows there’s some margin—but it seems to leave out natural gas. Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN FAO, told Bloomberg TV that unaffordable fertilizer prices (due to soaring natural gas prices) could reduce global grain production by up to 40% in the next planting season.
“The fact that we restrict FF use because of lack of availability rather than a carbon tax shouldn’t make a big difference to the difficulty of decarbonising.”
Well, the big difference is that the transition should take place at a moment where the energy required to build and transport windmills and solar panels would be much more expensive, and the economic system would be in a crisis meaning a lot more volatility.
“Yes, I think a lower rate of growth is likely than in an ideal world without material/oil constraints.”
I wouldn’t think that our current focus on growth is “ideal”—since it doesn’t add much happiness beyond a certain threshold and goes hand in hand with environmental degradation. I definitely think that it’s possible to live well with less energy, especially in rich countries where, and that we should have aimed for a reasonable level of consumption. As you said, there’s some margin before getting to threatening food prices (then again, rich countries) - which is why I’m more worried by sudden interruptions there.
“But it’s not clear that growth is negative, nor that slower growth, particularly in developed nations, is that bad. Would high resource costs trigger civilizational collapse?”
This is the reason I’m worried: high resource costs would, in all likelihood, mean a decline in economic growth. However, our entire economic system depends on the economy growing, and I fear an unplanned degrowth can go pretty poorly.
Our complex economy is based on investment. The reason people invest is that they think that they will be getting more in the future, not less—and this requires growth. If the economy declines, why invest if there’s less trust that you’ll profit from that?
Debt is doubling every 7-8 years, while the economy doubles every 20-25 years. This is unsustainable, and at some point this will to a realization that a large part of our debt will not be repaid—especially if there is a recession. This will inevitably lead to a “correction”—the form of which is unsure. One scenario could be a “run on the bank”, which could by itself lead to a massive economic crisis, the bankruptcy of many actors, and big supply chain disruption.
Of course, there’s no guarantee things will end up this way, but it’s a possible pathway. The economy has gotten back from milder shocks, but the strength of future economic shocks is expected to get bigger and bigger in the future (especially if we add environmental damage ), so we can’t assume everything will sort itself out.
This would lead to questions for which there’s no clear answer (as said in Post 2). In the past, there was a feedback loop with more growth leading to more energy extraction leading to more growth: what happens if this goes into reverse? Will investment hold up for natural gas and oil extraction? If trust in the monetary system is lost, how will trade over countries take place? Will country with a monetary system? To pursue economic growth at all costs, won’t some nations resort to wars over resources ?
Another problem is that the amount of interest would keep growing in the economy. In practice, it acts as a wealth pump, allowing loaners to get a larger and larger share of the economy unless the economy is growing. In this case, this would drive inequality (and social unrest) to unprecedented levels.
Moreover, our shared objective, as a society, is growth—having more purchasing power. If this stops being the case, what can replace this shared objective? Nationalism? Promoting your in-group at the expense of others? A focus on the local network of people that live around you?
This is why I think the end of economic growth is a big deal: it changes everything. There are of course scenarios where things end up being ok (well, depends for who) but there’s no guarantee we’ll end up in these scenarios—especially since this would lead us into the realm of “unthought futures”, so different we have trouble imagining them.
“You may be glad to note that on several occasions when writing my responses I have had cause to exclaim “he’s less wrong than I thought!” I think this is all anyone can really ask for in an internet argument. ”
Glad you’re thinking this way! I also find the exchange very interesting, and it lead me to change my position on several points. This is how I can progress, and I should thank you for that.
On your new document: I think I generally nod along to the peak oil and efficiency stuff. The renewables section is unconvincing, as you might imagine from our discussion above. You are right that there are a bunch of problems with IAMs making simplifications, but you don’t demonstrate that any of the factors they are missing would seriously change the results of them. It’s good to see that some of your arguments have grown more nuanced, but it also makes reviewing it more complicated and I don’t really have the time to debug the report in detail. I’m somewhat (pleasantly?) surprised that at the end of this all you’re suggesting that energy depletion might be good for reducing extinction risk though, I don’t know to what extent that flips the whole of this conversation—maybe you are actually the optimistic one!
These studies show that mineral requirements for clean energy grow rapidly. But they don’t show that the requirements are actually that high in most cases, as they state the ratios “for energy technology”. Currently we don’t use a lot of minerals in energy provision, so a quadrupling of that amount sounds dramatic but doesn’t represent a particularly large global consumption increase. Quote from the IEA: “There is no shortage of resources. Economically viable reserves have been growing despite continued production growth… However, declining ore quality poses multiple challenges for extraction and processing costs, emissions and waste volumes.” So the problem is still one of energy, rather than actual availability, which is why power is more important than minerals. So really the minerals question is still a renewables question.
Of the minerals shown here to require more than 100% of their current levels in 2050, only lithium would not be fairly easy to replace or produce for a small efficiency penalty (graphite is just carbon, indium is used in solar cells but can be replaced with graphene https://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=3942, cobalt & vanadium are used in batteries and and all have known substitutions). There’s some good stuff in this twitter thread, although it doesn’t have citations for everything it needs.
The historic examples you give are of the resource curse; societies becoming dependent on extracting commodities. I’m looking for examples of societies falling because they can’t buy commodities. E.g. I might have expected the increase in guano price to have created a food shortage and thus civilisational collapse, but as far as I know we didn’t see that; similarly, the rise in fertiliser prices you mention don’t seem to have had a rise in fascism so far—indeed, the elections so far since the invasion started have gone better for the left than might be expected.
I reiterate that debt economics aren’t my field, but I’m skeptical that they provide a barrier comparable to physics. There is clearly a secular trend towards rising debt, but I think you’re overestimating it; this IMF graph of global debt-to-gdp only grows at 1%/year from 2000-2018.
I feel like the majority of people I know don’t really have personal finance growth as their primary objective in life, and I don’t see how our society does either—it’s almost an accident of economics at this point.
I hope that virtualisation and renewable power means we can happily all bring on the great stagnation!
Thanks for the answer, sorry I didn’t reply earlier. I started working on another project for EA France, aiming to identify impactful charities working in France, so I had much less time to spend on the topic of energy depletion. I didn’t want to do a rushed answer, but didn’t find the time to dig into the topic once again… you know how it goes.
So instead, I’ll just publish an update on my thinking on the topic (while keeping in minf that I have found several important articles that I have to read).
So far, I’ve updated more positively on renewables—their improvement is indeed faster than just about anyone had anticipated (which makes papers obsolete as soon as they’re a few years old, and therefore makes it very difficult to get properly informed on the subject).
Several articles I’ve read have indeed made me update on them. There were several elements where I had underestimated adaptability. The EROI of renewables is indeed correct. I have a higher probability of an energy transition “from the top”, where we maintain energy growth (which isn’t necessarily good news, given that the more energy we have, the greater our capacity to destroy our environment and generate existential risks). Your link about the Twitter thread exposing the limits to the GTK report was indeed interesting. I also found an article here that showed several other limits.
I’m talking less and less about a 2050 timeframe (which is what most of the litterature talks about). However, I’m more worried about what short-term disruptions could imply.
Indeed, my worries are more about the fact that limits on fossil fuels are probably short-term : and that time constraints could prove significant. Going from a system where almost all trucks, or cement making, or steel making, or fertilizers, or hydrogen, or plastics (etc.) are dependent on fossil fuels, to a system where >50% of these are not fossil… this is going to take time, and I’m worried about what would happen during this time.
Same goes for storage : batteries are improving… but it seems that we’re a long way from the deployment speed required for seasonal storage in order to have a stabilized grid.
As a French Energy expert stated (prominent member of EDF) :
“The RTE report clearly shows that energy mixes with a high proportion of renewable energies can only be achieved with a very significant drop in consumption [...]. I admit that this reduction must be significant enough to involve much more than a simple technical improvement in process efficiency. Even so, why deprive ourselves of what at least makes it possible to reduce the pain, or even avoid widespread chaos?”
It’s the “chaos” scenario that worries me.
I feel like the majority of people I know don’t really have personal finance growth as their primary objective in life, and I don’t see how our society does either—it’s almost an accident of economics at this point.
It seems pretty clear to me that growth is the main goal of our society—and that it stopping would have far reaching consequences. As I said, a society where everyone’s share of the pie is growing is very different than one where everybody is competing to secure access to declining resources—the degree of trust is not the same. Especially when some wealthy people in society have the ability to agregate more and more resources, as is currently happening.
The importance of financial growth is exemplified by the fact that “degrowthers” have besically no traction on a political level, despite clear evidence on their side of a strong correlation between environmental impact and growth.
The more I look at it, the more the global economy appears to be working like a Ponzi scheme—requring an ever growing amount of capital and energy and resources to keep everyone’s trust in the fact that everyone’s investments will be paid out later. At some point, it has to stop. The question is : how do you end a Ponzi scheme in a smooth way?
Still, the future is full of weird stuff, so we’ll see. I’ve had less time to keep an eye on these subjects recently—I’ve got several interesting papers to look at (and I’ll check your point on minerals and debt). I’ll update then.
These are very good points you’re making, thanks for the thoughtful answer.
For solar, when I spoke of new technologies, I spoke mainly about your 2020 link—but I agree that solar panels can be made without rare metals, this is true. It’s probably possible to make version of them that do not rely on too complicated stuff. The limits on metals are rather about the quantities required for batteries: current energy transition plans focus mainly on lithium (which will mean shortages given the long downtimes). It’s possible to switch to other metals to avoid stuff like cobalt (say we use Sodium Sulfur), , but by the time we decide that this would mean a serious delay. For copper and zinc, the issue is more that they’re used about everywhere, so there’s a lot of competition for their uses.
For planes, steel or trucks, my main point is not that it’s impossible to replace them. My point is that alternatives are less energy-efficient, or have more constraints, or are more expensive (less affordable), or will a take a long time to deploy. “We can do that”, yes, but at what scale?
Land constraints : How many biofuels would be required? Won’t that compete with land and food? You can check the section on biofuels here.
Efficiency losses : For hydrogen, the problem is not about materials, indeed. It’s rather a problem of lower efficiency, and high investment required. For storage, I think the highest issue for hydrogen is the low round-trip efficiency, only at about 30-40% from what I’ve seen, meaning we lose a lot of the energy invested. I’m sorry, I mixed several different challenges in the storage and hydrogen parts, so the structure wasn’t really clear.
Transition time: It’s possible to make steel with hydrogen, you’re right. There are pilot plants for that, as your link shows (although their estimates for commercialization are earlier than I though). But smelters take a huge amount of upfront investment and last 20 to 50 years, so most investors are to change. How long will it take to scale up, especially as the higher cost will deter most investors? How long will it take to replace the 98% of hydrogen currently made with fossil fuels? I made a section on manufacturing, you migh want to check “limited incentive to change”.
For trucks, I didn’t know that the Volvo ones were commercial yet—I was rather waiting to see how the Tesla semi was doing. They have longer range, higher load, and lower battery reloading time than I expected—that’s a surprise. I’m reassessing my assesments upwards for trucks (although I’m curious how long these batteries can last, and if they will have a lot of success). However, it’s gonna take some time to replace the entire transportation system—if oil peaks within 10 years, it’s unlikely that electric truck production will be high enough to prevent some kind of supply crunch here.
There is decoupling at a global level, indeed, indeed, but only relative decoupling, where we still need more energy for every point of GDP. For point c., I meant the “energy intensity of the economy” (sorry, I was unclear), and you’re right, it has indeed been declining. However, I fear that’s not enough: we need absolute decoupling, where GDP increases and energy use declines. Empirical data, at the global level, seems to indicate we are far from doing that (and we can’t extrapolate based on what rich coutries do). Even if we were to attain absolute decoupling with a lot of political will, we’d have to maintain it over a long time, but we can’t increase material efficiency indefinitely, as there’s a physical upper bound here, and diminishing returns.
You’re right to point out that Giraud wasn’t peer reviewed—I slipped past that. Given that, there are probably more elements showing there is a “two-way causality” between energy and GDP here, not a single way causality, you’re right. That would make sense since economic growth allows for the investment in energy, while constraints on energy production can cause tensions on economic growth (like in the 1970s and 2008). Not sure if that changes conclusions much, though.
“Both Giraud and the peer-reviewed Ayres document end their analysis before renewable energy becomes a notable fraction of the total”—Not sure I understand, what does that imply?
What I meant is that these models do not take into account how all these solar panels and windmills and batteries are built. Switching manufacturing to green hydrogen requires more energy than just using coal, so that means additional capacity, which is not included in models.
I think we’re getting closer to an agreement. I would be more tempted if your thesis were “energy will become much more expensive at some times of day/year, as will certain minerals, and this will depress GDP compared to naive expectations.” It’s not obvious to me that low energy storage does more than require heavy industry to relocate to more consistent climes and/or stop for a few days each year, which would depress GDP but hardly to the level of existential threat.
I think most of these are economic points about how expensive it is to make the transition, rather than showing it’s impossibile. It certainly won’t be cheap in any individual sector, but as a fraction of the global economy we aren’t necessarily talking very large amounts of investment for these changes, and many governments already have plans and incentives to make this happen. A lot of this analysis feels like you trying to make a new Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) from scratch without writing down equations, and I think the disagreements you have with existing IAMs are not as substantial as you think. Things like land use constraints for biofuels are typically included in good models, as is the inefficiency of hydrogen, e.g. based on IEA values in [1]. You might dispute the numbers but they’re fundamentally reasonable. Land use is a problem if you want to power a large fraction of the world this way, but not if you just want to power a few small sectors like aviation, and provides some defence against renewable variability. The truth is there is no silver bullet for these transitions, but a range of viable portfolios that are hard to calculate without numbers.
I am more techno-optimist than you, and therefore think that we can sustain a mild continuous increase in energy use from only the improvements in the efficiency and affordability of renewable energy (as in the Ren scenario) and this enables a large increase in GDP, if that’s something society wants. I don’t think this is indefinitely required anyway; I don’t think it’s a particular problem for society if GDP grows subexponentially in 50 years time, or even remains constant at a high level for everyone.
I think you would like this paper [2], which makes a similar point regarding energy investment requirements. Although a lot of IAMs don’t include this, for small modular technology like solar cells and wind, it’s not that big an issue (whereas it is for nuclear). This is also why bioenergy is so popular in spite of the low efficiency—no adaptations required to use it. As stated above, I believe the inefficiency of green hydrogen is accounted for in good models.
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922002501#b0170 for hydrogen, https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/institute/departments/activities/land-use-modelling/magpie for land use models
[2] https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz8060
Yes, we may get closer to an agreement on several points. My thesis is close to how you formulated it, although it’s more of “I think energy will get more and more expensive overall [or at least less affordable], and it should reduce overall GDP for a long period”.
The issue of storage is not just that energy will be less available at time of the year, it’s that there is a serious risk of blackout and/or the grid straight up crashing down (but we’d go for blackouts first). Blackouts would impact many things that depend on electricity: communications, refrigeration, ATMs, hospitals, most factories and microchips production… Relocation is possible but 1/ Relocating entire industries takes time, and costs money and energy 2/ Living in remote sunny locations (where few people are) needs a good transport system (for food and water) - and these are areas most exposed to climate change.
Most of these are economic points, indeed. But this is because energy is an integral part of the economy—as I said, I think it’s more useful of seeing money as a way of allocating goods and services that are produced with energy. This is a view usually held by heterodox economists, so most people have not heard of it—as mainstream economists don’t include natural resources as an input of their models. But it fits rather well with data, so seeing the economy as a material phenomenon helps immensely. So when I say investment, it’s not just a matter of printing more money, it’s a matter of dedicating real materials and energy towards the transition (at the expense of other uses).
It’s also worth remembering that investment in already falling short of what is needed in the energy sector, like for the US grid (see post 2). BloombergNEF puts the bill at $173 trillions − 2 times world GDP. Moreover, in the past, a recession occurred when energy prices reached 10% of GDP, so the transition cannot cost too much. This is why I don’t think investment can get that high.
I’m not trying to do another IAM—I do not have the skills for that. However, I can point out toward some erroneous assumptions they have: they tend to take GDP as an external input; to have improvements in energy effiency going waaay beyond anything observed in the past; and they also don’t model limits on minerals (time to deploy, energy required). These are really strong limits for me.
If you want actual numbers, I personally found that the most complete work was the GTK report (for numbers of “what is required”) and the MEDEAS model (for modelling).
For land use and hydrogen, some models try to integrate that, yes. But there are limits to these numbers, detailed in the GTK report—for instance, they find that the number of vehicles to be replaced (H2 and EV) have been underestimated in previous studies. For land use, for instance, just to replace the feedstock for plastics and petrochemicals, you’d need half of all sustainable biomass production by 2030, according to an IEA scenario. This is beyond anything reasonable, in my opinion.
I’d like to imagine that GDP could increase with a stagnation in energy production and an increase in energy efficiency making up for that. But what happened in 2008 doesn’t seem to point that way: even a relative stagnation in oil production led to prices going from $20 to $140 in 6 years, a main factor in the great financial crisis. Even then, efficiency cannot grow indefinitely, as it is subject to diminishing returns.
GDP being constant would still lead to problems too, since the amount of interest to be paid would still grow. Debt defaults would then increase and this could lead to bad results, like in 2008. See here for that.
This paper was indeed interesting, thanks. I also think more “granular” technologies are important, as less vulnerable to trade disruptions. However, while I don’t worry about the deployment of solar panels, I’m more worried about the interconnections they have with many “lumpy” processes that are much harder to change (like the paper itself points out). For production: mines, factories, furnaces for smelting metals, road transport by trucks… All of which take quite some time to change. Another big one that takes time to expand is the electricity grid (for solar and wind), especially as the sunniest and windiest location are further away from cities.
Getting closer, anyway. Maybe we will have to
We already know how to solve the blackouts problem via dedicated generation (or storage) for high-impact sectors. In a renewable economy, very large amounts of energy are available very cheaply at certain times, so for instance a factory with a 1-day battery that can produce at night before sunny days is able to work nearly as efficiently as they do now. You aren’t actually relocating very much of the economy (only very heavy industry) and this constantly relocates towards incidentally-sunnier countries anyway for labor-cost reasons.
I’m not an economist so I don’t know that it’s pointful to get into a long debate about economics, but it’s pretty clear from how governments can reshape the economy during wartime implies that they have tremendous capacity to restructure the economy when they want to. Your analysis doesn’t make sense to me because green tech is something that makes energy; it’s an energy loan, not an energy expenditure.
Investment in a green transition solves much of the long-term underinvestment problem at the same time, so the historic underinvestment is not really an additive factor.
Good IAMs don’t take GDP as an external input, and the fact that one you cite does is a bad sign. I had not heard of this IAM before (I work around IAMs professionally but don’t code them myself), but it doesn’t seem to understand the basics of the laws of supply and demand, assumes fixed demand and then complains when this can’t be fulfilled. This means it supports your point that GDP is suppressed, but doesn’t qualify by how much. It also assumes, for instance, that it is impossible to increase recycling rates. The possibility of recycling largely solves your point c), since recycling requires no additional land and less energy than we currently spend making plastic—it’s simply that the processing is not financially incentivised by the low cost of oil.
The GTK report isn’t an academic document and doesn’t have an obvious IAM attached.
I’m unclear why you jump from cars to plastic. At any rate, only the waste fraction plus the growth in the number of vehicles (or plastic) requires new material, the rest can be recycled. There appears to just be a disagreement between two models over the number of vehicles in existence at the moment, not a modelling discrepancy.
I don’t think its wise to generalise from 2008 to the future of the world, but I also don’t know enough to argue about this.
Factories constantly update and move anyway, following cheap labor, as discussed above. China seems to hope to seriously bulk out its energy grid for renewables in about half a year https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-state-grid-invest-22-bln-ultra-high-voltage-power-lines-report-2022-08-03/
Then again, thanks for these points, it’s interesting to exchange with you.
For storage, I agree that what you describe could be an option if batteries continue to get much cheaper and better. However, getting 1 night of batteries for factories would still be more energy-costly compared to what we do today (because of 60%-80% round-trip efficiency, the need for building overcapacity, additional mineral extraction, and the energy cost making batteries). So we’d have to use more energy to do the same thing. I agree that the “net energy we get back” would still be net positive, but the reason I mention the energy cost of green technology is because of the EROI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), that has to be high (10-12) to sustain a complex civilization.
Governments can make wartime economies to handle energy differently, yes, and probably will. However, getting to that point would mean a very different world order. This would have probably been caused by a serious economic crisis. But we’d be in the realm of systemic risks described in post 2. What history taught us is that for a war economy to go on, you need an external enemy (and maybe an internal one too). This could have serious implications, like countries with resources (oil, gas, coal, metals, phosphorus) could decide to keep these resources for themselves. Of course, this would mean a serious energy descent for countries that are dependent on trade, and that don’t have an army big enough to weigh in.
I didn’t express myself clearly, sorry. What I say isn’t that “with the current amount of investment in energy, we won’t have enough for the transition, so we should need more for green energy”. What I’m saying is “it’s probably not possible to have a much bigger investment capacity than we have now”. Oil prices are already in a spot where they oscillate between “too high for consumers” and “too low for energy companies”, which is unsustainable—so green energy probably cannot afford to be much more expensive than oil (well, at least if we are to keep the current economic system).
Oh, these are interesting feedbacks. These are important limits to the MEDEAS model, thanks for pointing them out. What do you think of the pitfalls of most current IAMs it points out in the introduction? Do you know of an energy transition model that avoid them? For instance, I’m often wary of their very high efficiency rates.
Recycling is an option and can be improved, absolutely. However, it cannot go to 100%: the output is often of lower quality (“downcycling”), and metals have a very low recycling rate when dispersed in high-tech products (and there are more and more of them). There’s a section on that here.
The GTK report doesn’t have an IAM, no. It doesn’t try to answer the question “how fast should renewable energy grow?”, but rather asks “Is that at all possible?”. It’s not from academia, but I think it makes good points that I’d like to have seen adressed everywhere.
Sorry, I switched from cars to plastics because you said that land use wasn’t that big of a problem, so I pointed to an area where land is a problem, as this should influence the amount of biofuels available for cars. Recycling is possible, but plastics tend to downcycle pretty quickly.
Why shouldn’t we generalize from what happened in 2008? The finance system didn’t change that much, it patched a few things but still goes through the same “boom and bust” cycle. The financial system was hours away from a paralysis in 2008 - surely such an event would influence the future a lot, since most of the economy co-evolved with the financial system. A similar event might get us into the systemic risks described in post 2. We can of course say that “we’ll find a solution”, but that’s assuming the problem away.
Ok, I can agree that factories can move rather quickly—I’d also argue China is a special case as it has the ability of planning and doing things very quickly, I don’t worry that much about them for the future.
However, what I’m worried about is that many important elements of our industrial system are not competitive to replace with renewables (trucks, ships, blast furnaces for steel, cement and other metals), and this is likely to stay so for quite some time. Research might improve but we’re far from having a similar cost. Carbon prices could help but high-heat manufacturing has razor-thin margins and many politicians don’t want to burden the sector by fear of delocalization. Plus, it’s really hard to match the properties of coal.
So, unless alternatives get more competitive very fast, it’s likely that they won’t get replaced until fossil fuels get much more expensive. However, by the time that happens, this would probably mean we have a financial crisis on our hands. This means the transition would have to be done in a context when revenues are dwindling, trust in the future is low (which impacts investment and debt), and the prices of energy (to build the factory) are through the roof. I think it’s unlikely that we can transition fast enough in such a context.
I mean, imagine oil actually peaked in 2018 (a very serious possibility), and we had to make the transition now. Do you think that a transition would be possible, at the scale required?
Yes, I think our exchange has been fruitful and thought-provoking.
Battery-wise: I think this is why I focus on energy cost variability rather than absolute energy cost, energy may well have a negative cost at some times but very large at others. The analyses of the effects of these are different.
Civilisation requires a large energy surplus, but I don’t see any reason to assume that the EROI specifically needs to be any value above 1. If I change the unit of the solar cell (let’s say EROI 10) to a solar-powered solar cell factory (EROI = 100 because the first 10x is all reinvested) then that same physical system suddenly passes your test. I don’t see what research you were citing here in the first place, but suspect it still suffers this problem.
I think both my comments about a war-footing and comments about China are similar: the Chinese government basically does what most governments do during wartime all the time. If it became obvious that the economy required us to do more government-led organisation (which I gather you think it does), I think we would. Climate change can have the same impact as an external enemy in these considerations, and there’s some evidence that it psychologically does act this way.
I think I got what you were trying to say, but I haven’t tended to respond fully to your comments on oil prices because I want to get out of oil in basically all cases, avoiding this problem altogether. As above, I don’t think we are dependent on oil to make the transition (it’s a very expensive form of energy anyway). It strikes me incidentally that your too-low/too-high price analysis won’t hold up to including inflation.
I guess most of these are criticisms are correct statements, it’s just very easy to list effects that models of the global economy don’t have but hard to evaluate which missing factors are really important. I don’t fully understand the objection to the use of price as a medium of scarcity, but it’s also not my field.
The finance system changed tremendously in Europe, the level of regulatory oversight it faces hugely increased and the worst actors were chased out of the field. It doesn’t seem to have had much of a boom since! https://www.statista.com/statistics/871556/uk-financial-sector-gross-value-added-share-of-total-economy/
It’s also just generally a bad idea to generalise from a single historic event to the entire future.
Because I come at this from a climate change perspective, my baseline assumption is that we will have to decarbonise everything in about the next two decades anyway, which solves many of these problems. Your angle on this is essentially a side-concern that happens to pull in the same direction There will probably be some cost to this decarbonisation, as you say, but actually not that much to the whole of society. There are even arguments, somewhat related to your points about the scarcity of resources for existing infrastructure combined with the fact that renewable energy is less constrained by this, that the cost of transition is actually negative, as in this study https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(22)00410-X. The first-mover cost on industry is overcome by combining carbon tax with carbon border adjustments, hopefully the EU will impose these both soon and other states will follow. I sincerely believe we can do this transition, starting now!
I’m curious, what would make you consider an option “we do not manage to do an energy transition” as a possible scenario?
I agree that I don’t worry that much about China for this reason. China is able to do this because it has a goal of becoming n°1 and surpassing the US within 30 years—but as soon as it is less dependent on money from rich western countries, well, I’m not sure it will continue to supply resources and metals (controls >60-70% of refining) and solar panels in the same terms. I fail to envision a scenario where every nation is in”war economy” state but international cooperation and trade go on as usual.
We are very dependent on oil to make a transition because almost all (>99%) mining trucks, ships, long-distance trucks depend on oil. Same goes for plastic production and making asphalt. This indidentally means that oil is currently necessary for the extraction and transport of almost of all the world’s primary energy (solar panels and windmills are transported by road, as is coal). We could switch to electric trucks or stuff like that (at what scale? with what materials?), but by the time >50% of global transport changes (when?), every price increase in oil will affect the availablility of the rest of energy sources.
I don’t base myself on prices as a reference for scarcity because the relationship between oil prices and production looks like this:
(by the way, see here for only oil prices but inflation-adjusted)
Do you have sources for the betterment of the financial system? I know there are more regulations since 2008 and several patches have been applied, but from what I got it still seems that the root causes of the problem are still there (no separation between commercial and investment banking, finance so complex pretty much nobody understands it completely, focus on short-term profit—at least that’s what I got from summaries of this book).
Oh, yeah I quoted this study in post 1. But it assumes solar and wind growth continuing without taking into account stuff like minerals, deployment time, land, political opposition… John Halstead mentions in his recent report (p.53) that on a 27 countries sample, “the growth of renewables is only accelerating in 5 countries, is stable in 11 and is stalling in 11”. “Declining costs of technologies have already led to a relatively high growth in the OECD, although currently this growth is becoming constrained on sociotechnical and political rather than economic grounds”.
For the EROI, this is more complicated than that (which I why I didn’t talked much about it in the main post). I have written two section on it in the additional doc: why what matters for societies is the “energy surplus” and “what is the minimal EROI of society” (I just updated it to explain why you need 3:1 for transportation). But a basic answer is that your argument would work if you could make an infinite supply of solar panels. However, there are limits in the number of panels we can do: number of workers available, financial investment, number of adequate locations at a cheap enough price, materials for the panels and batteries, money that can be invested to expand the electric grid… So the panels we do make in these limited quantities must be good enough to power the rest of society—or it would be barely worth the investement.
PS: I just came across you April post—loved it! I really had a good laugh here :)
Three scenarios where we do not make a green transition:
Firstly, we are structurally prevented by government forces, for instance, in many countries there is difficulty in obtaining planning permission to get renewables in place, or have perverse tax incentives (gas cheaper than electricity for instance) that make the transition difficult. Both of these are currently happening in the UK, but not enough to resist the pull of renewables completely!
Secondly, energy demand takes off so quickly (perhaps due to AI) that we expand green power without reducing FF, until the sort of problem you indicate occurs.
Third, something disrupts the global supply chain that renewables currently depend on.
However all of these seem likely to be self-limiting because if the situation really got that pressing, you’d assume governments and society would adapt to fix them unless there’s a bad actor or civilizational collapse.
International trade between allies does very well in a war though, and even enemies keep trading through many wars. I’m not entirely sure who the enemy is in this case.
Currently true, but the more true it is, the stronger the incentive will be to switch over quickly when oil prices rise. I anticipate a very quick switchover because it looks like the advent of affordable electric trucks will align closely with (and usually combines with) the advent of driverless technology, meaning the two biggest costs of trucking can be slashed simultaneously by changing over
Oh right—yes, this is because production can be freely moved within reason. Basically we’re not yet in the regime where oil is being treated as a scarce resource. We may indeed regret this in centuries to come, though I suspect we’ll find replacements.
The big legislation is the Besel III rules, which have been continuously strengthened since the crash, regulating the fraction of money banks need to hold in different forms. It’s not perfect (some people think the classification of money doesn’t really match the risks) but it’s definitely tighter than it was https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2020-may-supervision-and-regulation-report-banking-system-conditions.htm
There are also lots of stress-tests carried out on institutions to see if they’d collapse in particular circumstances, which should account for inter-departmental ignorance in banks. I haven’t read that book though and can’t comment in detail.
There clearly are limits to the extent of renewable deployment, but I’m unconvinced that they have been seen so far. Halstead is inaccurately reading Cherp et al 2021, since he restricts his analyses to only the solar PV data for only the subset of samples that are classified into these three categories. The study analyses 60 countries and fails to classify the majority of them for either solar or onshore wind. In addition to the 5 accelerating PV countries there are 6 different countries accelerating onshore wind. The table remarks that 4 stable onshore wind countries have substantial offshore wind, but does not investigate this in detail.
In criticism of the study itself, the three “poster-child” countries with stalling renewable energy deployment in 2019 all showed a notable deployment in the supposedly stalled renewable energy by 2021. (New Zealand onshore wind: 2.26 → 2.64 TWh; Spain solar 15.1 → 26.8 TWh – an 80% increase in 2 years; Germany solar: 44.9 ->49.0 TWh, OurWorldInData). This happened during COVID, and against the long-term trend of these countries reducing overall electricity usage. When deployment becomes variable, for sociopolitical or megaproject reasons, the sigmoid function assumed in this study only allows for negative temporary deviation from exponential growth and assumes that any deviation is locked in indefinitely. In reality, laws restricting e.g. onshore wind can disappear, returning us to an exponential growth phase.
Yes, I agree there are practical problems with basing society on 1.1 EROI solar cells. A lot of this discussion is really “how can we work out the actual EROI from the quoted EROI only looking at a bit of the system”. Infrastructural costs should definitely be included in these analyses, however I think they’re also quite hard to estimate because you need to know how long your infrastructure will last both from degradation and from being made irrelevant.
Thanks!
Sorry for the long wait! I was on a vacation. The points you put forward are important, if think all three scenarios you point out could happen, especially combined. To rephrase what you said, there are:
Systemic lock-ins, where the dominant actors prevent the arising of other solutions. I think another factor is implicit, it’s that we know how to use fossil fuels everywhere, so most of the time it’s the safest bet in industry or transportation. Of course, it’s not preventing a transition, but it’s slowing it down seriously. More on that here (p. 75). For instance, the European Commission wants to allow the use of coal and gas for green hydrogen.
Public opposition, you’re right. In say Poland or France there is quite some opposition to windmills (I’ve seen that a legal complaint was filed for 7 out of 10 windmills projects in France).
Energy consumption still going up, and fast. If the global economy continues to grow at about 3.0% per year (although it could be less), we will consume as much energy and materials in the next ∼30 years as we did cumulatively in the past 10,000. Also, I’d be more optimistic if renewables were actually reducing fossil fuel use, instead of just adding up to it.
Supply chains breaking down. Talking about these below. A long enough recession could trigger this, as said in post 2.
I think this is where we have probably a different view on things. “Fixing the situation” requires several components, some of them being international cooperation for trade and goods, trust in the future (for investment) and a long-term vision (for making the right technological choices). These elements are in decline, at least in the US or Europe. Not for China though, as you said, but I’d argue it is an outlier.
If, say, France had to transition in a hurry toward renewables within the next 10 years, it would be entirely dependent of China, on which >80% of the solar panels manufacturing depends. Or on Chile or Australia for copper or lithium. It doesn’t have the resources to do that locally. Building locally a lot of infrastructure requires a lot of money and competent workers—and these limits are already slowing down the buildup and maintenance of French nuclear plants. Acquiring the resources abroad relies on a working banking system, Euro not being devaluated, and China not deciding to greatly increase the prices of metals or windmills. We can assume none of this will happen, of course, but this is a real risk.
I mentioned wars affecting international trades specifically because of the war in Ukraine—I mean, this has quite an impact on energy already.
As said above, a quick switch relies on quite a number of things—and the scale of stuff to replace is really big. Industrial processes have quite some inertia, even with an incentive—for instance, the amount of metals required by 2030 for the energy transition is already unrealistic given the current mining pipelines, according to an Eurometaux report. It’s just that mining takes time to deploy.
For trucks specifically, they’re currently under production, so we don’t know yet how affordable they will be—this depend on the lifetime of the battery and how often it has to be changed (400km range is also about half the preferred range for a regular class 8 truck, and charging time would be between 2.5h and 9.5h long). Driverless technology, while good on the paper, would require a lot of data for lidar and stuff like that: 100 millions vehicles would require 230 exabytes of data worldwide, every month. That’s the equivalent on our networks of 19 times the size of our current internet. (French source, but I can translate if you want).
Interesting, I had not seen this piece of legislation. This is better than what I had in mind. Of course, as you said, this doesn’t solve everything (some are pointing out that it has inadvertently led to increased risk-taking by borrowers) but it’s something.
However, what I’m warning against is a “run on the bank” scenario, where so much money is loaned that not everything can be repaid (because not enough energy and materials t produce everything). When it’s widely known that not everybody will get their money back, people and investors will rush in to get back what they can. There’s also the fact that interest rates would still grow in a stagnating economy, leading to an ever-increasing number of payment defaults. These problems would still arise even with a healthier finance system than in 2008.
What you are saying is interesting—I had not in mind these limitations for the Halstead report, and Cherp. This is good to know, thanks. Do the exemples you give really rule out what Cherp says, though? Spain had a huge increase in solar and wind, yes, but NZ is not that impressive, and Germany had more solar but less wind (graphs for wind and solar). Is that enough to invalidate their conclusions of a “not fast enough growth rate”? This mitigates the conclusion a bit, indeed, but I’m not sure this means that a fast enough growth rate will be reached overall.
Even if we suppose it does, the current growth curve is for intermittent electricity production. This is for replacing nuclear and gas and coal. What matters in my eyes, however, is the growth rate for replacing long-haul trucks, and metal smelting, and cement production, and natural gas fertilizers, and steel production, and plastics. These ones are necessary too to build and maintain renewables (and the rest of industrial society), but they are still at very, very low growth-rates, since they barely started. Not sure they can increase fast enough.
For EROI, I agree that I’d really like calculations of the “actual EROI”, encompassing all the societal and polotical structures required for extracting energy, and taking all the infrastructure into account. As you said, it’s devilishly hard to calculate.
In the meantime, what I’m basing myself on is that most of the past societies had quite a high EROI (>10), including hunter-gatherers and agrarian societies (source, page 42). This surplus would allow for the many things a society needs (taking care of children and the ederly, providing for non-productive elites and administration and armies). So it’s uncertain we can really go below that, especially as we are a much more complex society.
Even if we disagree on the possibility of a continued energy descent, I think we can agree that an energy transition, especially sudden, would have a wide range of political, social, economic and geopolitical consequences. The continuation of “business as usual” is rather uncertain under these prospects, and I think this neglected by forecasters and EA models of the future.
Yes, I’ve also been busy and I think the conversation is getting hard to follow and delivering diminishing returns. But to address a few points:
I think we are mostly in agreement that these scenarios are both bad and plausible, but disagree about the badness and plausibility. However on the second point, the paper you quote is simply not providing enough evidence of its point. Potentially 40 or so years of constant consumption would pass this test, but you should not assume that consumption of energy or resources is constant per GDP, as it simply hasn’t been in recent history. The growth in energy consumption the last few decades seems to have been linear rather than exponenetial, but forcing it into exponential form gives an average 1.7% average growth this century https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution. Material consumption of, e.g. cement seems to have flatlined recently (as it is mostly done in China), and is also not exponential for any real stretch of time https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46455844.
I don’t know very much about supply chain disruption, but I definitely don’t feel you’ve demonstrated that they can persist for many years. There’s quite a strong financial incentive to sort them out and most of the disruptions I can think of seem either based on sanctions or to resolve in around a year. I’d be interested to see any historic examples you have. My historic counter-example would be guano, a slowly-renewing natural resource that was required agriculturally and at risk of depletion, but saved by the invention of the Haber process https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/when-the-western-world-ran-on-guano.
While I agree that France would struggle to go renewable all on its own, I am sure it can go renewable without the aid of any single other continent, given the diverse range of ways of building renewables. I don’t really see a situation where Europe would be cut off from all continents even if perhaps a few countries would put up trade barriers. As we see with oil from Russia going to India now, every time you impose a trade barrier, the price of the goods shifts and to tempt other countries to participate in trade.
Analyses of the cost comparison of electric trucks are still crude, but do exist already. The possibly-biased-electric ICCT concludes that in many European cities we may be at price parity (due to existing subsidies) under reasonable assumptions about electricity and diesel prices https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/tco-battery-diesel-delivery-trucks-jun2022.pdf. While battery swapping isn’t yet a thing, it probably will be soon for large trucking firms, which eliminates the charging problem. I don’t understand why the lidar data needs to be stored, most of the work can be done locally and you can overwrite it minute-by-minute, can’t you?
I don’t really know what to think about this banking problem, it feels like it can be treaded as a separate issue to the materials problem in a digital economy though.
I think the result shows the Cherp paper is over-keen to lock in often temporary bottlenecks. This doesn’t mean that growth will never slow, but casts significant doubt on our ability to predict it. It’s worth separating out actual generation (weather-dependent) from capacity with wind, which has still risen by 2.5% for the last two years https://www.statista.com/statistics/421797/tracking-wind-power-in-germany/. That isn’t great but is hardly stagnation! Solar has been doing better and it looks like it will be up more this year https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/01/germany-deployed-3-2-gw-of-pv-in-first-half-of-2022/.
I think the emerging technologies (electric trucks etc) have extremely high (but variable) growth rates because they have such low current penetration. But the combination means that we can’t estimate the long-term trends very well. Cherp’s technique, quite wisely, doesn’t even try.
I fundamentally don’t think that the energy economics of a solarpunk post-scarcity future will necessarily have much in common with pre-agrarian society. We are not primarily talking about the EROI of food production here, which would dominate this consideration.
We do indeed agree on your final points. I definitely don’t look towards a business-as-usual future! More work developing other futures is very valuable. I just think it’s important to be clear when you’re discussing a worst-case scenario verses a likely scenario, and to realise that society has a lot of self-repair mechanisms that toy models miss out.
Oh, great to hear from you ! How have you been doing ?
Here are my answers to these points. I must admit that yeah, we have a different view on things—which is good as I learn a lot of stuff -, but I feel like I could explain better the extent of our predicament.
I have found this podcast episode which should explain why I am still worried about all of that, and deeply worried. Now, it has exagerations on a number of points, and some of the data isn’t the most recent, I absolutely agree, but damn, overall I really have trouble seeing how to solve all the issues she points out.
Now for the individual points:
Thanks for pointing out the limits in Cherp et al. It’s useful to know that, energy production is still going up to some extent—not fast enough, but still up.
Energy consumption going up. You are right that we probably won’t consume as much energy and materials in the next ∼30 years as we did in the past 10,000 - that was indeed an exageration, sorry. But the overall amount of energy consumed is still going up, which is a problem.
Even by accepting the hypothesis that most of the world economies will be service-based in the future (which begs the question of where industry will be done), like rich countries, a recent report estimates that this scenario, in my eyes optimistic, would still lead to an energy demand around 780-950 EJ in 2080, so 35-65% higher than in 2019.
As for materials, there is a recoupling of materials and economic growth, meaning we use more and more materials per point of GDP, at the moment when the economy was supposed to be dematerialized with the advent of the Internet. This trend is expected to worsen with a metal-based energy transition.
For me, the risk of supply chains breaking down isn’t that it lasts for several years. It’s that such a breakdown would itself have terrible consequences even for a short period—and transforming deeply society.
The food autonomy of cities in France is of about 2%. Meaning 98% of the food comes from elsewhere (even the local food goes elsewhere—you can eat it in case of a crisis but most of it is very specialized, like the region of Bordeaux mostly produces wine). Let’s say that the diesel supply were to suddenly stop (because of a war, an embargo, one country broking an exclusive trade deal with an oil producer at the expense of others). In such case, trucks stop running and the food supply stops. Few cities have stocks, so within a few weeks you risk seeing a lot of people starving.
Food wouldn’t be the only impact. Trucks are also used for construction and maintenance. Almost every item that goes out from a factory, almost any good is transported via a (diesel) truck. Not only would this trigger mass unemployment pretty quickly, but these goods are everything that get industrial civilization working. This includes medicine that goes into hospitals. Supermarkets only have a few days or weeks of supply. Chlorine to make water drinkable is transported by trucks. Firefighters and the police and public bus and cars would be stopped too.
This is likely to last until electric trucks are widespread. Of course, these can be competitive when it comes to price right now, but this doesn’ t mean that they will be in a world:
With a much more fierce competition for scarcer minerals (especially lithium)
Where building the truck will be made at 100% with renewable electricity or green hydrogen (such a process doesn’t exist yet).
And in any case, scaling up trucks from basically 0% today to at least 70-80% is going to take quite some time—at least 20-30 years I think, if I look at the Hirsch report.
(for self-driving cars, the issue is not data storage, but the use of could technologies that go heavy on the networks)
Now, the scenario of diesel supply being suddenly cut out might seem unreasonable. People will try to adapt to some extent. But even if there is just an overall reduction, this means that some people in some countries will have it, and some others won’t. Not every region in the world can afford ever-more expensive oil, or electric trucks. Things won’t go well for these last ones.
Same if the electricity supply breaks down (because it’s winter, it’s cold, renewables cannot match demand, and there is a blackout). In such a case, electricity is necessary for factories, for the water supply of cities, for the entire financial system (like credit cards), and for oil and gas transport and extraction.
Of course, such kinds of breakdown would deeply affect energy production and geopolitics and wouldn’t be “solved” within a year.
The examples I have are Cuba and North Korea, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, where half the oil supply was suddenly being cut, with different results I detail in post 2 (and hundreds of thousands dead in North Korea). But compared to rich countries, these two still had a much higher share of the population doing some kind of farming and food production, and were more autonomous for basic needs. So our current situation, with most of the population in Europe and North America being incapable of providing their own needs and depending on continuous long-distance transportation, is rather unprecedented.
Although there are other examples of collapse in the world, like Lebanon, Syria, Venezuela, or more recently Sri Lanka. So I wouldn’t rule that out.
I have similar worries about the banking problem, because it’s one pathway to supply chain disruption (and I don’t see it as a really separate issue, given the strong relationship between energy and economic growth). By itself it is worrying.
I am not saying all of that is unavoidable. I don’t think it is, because as you said there are self-repair mechanisms that could be able to avoid the worst outcomes in many regions. But the possibility is, in my eyes, likely enough to warrant building some lifeboats, just in case.
I’ve been quite stressed, for reasons other than lack of materials! How about you?
I’m not particularly impressed by the podcast. It seems to lack any imagination in working out how to decarbonise the construction of renewable energy itself, which is not generally regarded as a fundamental problem (as opposed to being slightly expensive to transition).
I encountered this twitter thread which I think explains better than I did why EROI isn’t that useful: https://mobile.twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1341730308060831744
Exponential energy consumption increase cannot be delivered for long, by any means. But renewable power can easily sustain a doubling of current power consumption.
We have a diesel crunch at the moment in Europe, meaning we are eating into our stockpiles, however all countries still have more than 61 days of consumption or import stockpiled, so considerably more than a week! Some states are less than the 90 days of imports required though. We would see factories shut down due to cost long before we started killing off food transport, so in practice this would last longer.
Agree that the rollout of electric vehicles will be expensive and will take time. But I hope that we will also reduce the number of cars required by carsharing, which autonomous vehicles makes easier. As we transition to renewable power, the prices of fossil fuels stabilises as demand is reduced. This makes greening harder, but diffuses the problem you foresee with food distribution.
5Tb an hour of data doesn’t seem like that much, particularly after Moore’s law kicks in! A fully renewable grid well realistically require some fossil backup for the next few decades while we get hydrogen sorted. However there price of this should also stabilise, as above.
I guess I’m unclear what the lifeboats you suggest are. I agree that on the margin more people should stockpile food, and possibly more in general. I don’t know that it’s true that stockpiling, say, copper or lithium is likely to be a wise investment: probably the market is already aware of the needs for these in the future, and to make an appreciable price signal to mine more would be very expensive. There are government stockpiles of quite a few things in developed nations; while developing nations should also stockpile more I am an ideal world, it’s not clear how high a priority that is compared to tackling current, definite problems.
Ah, sorry to hear you’ve been stressed. The FTX debacle doesn’t arrange things (I myself have a 6-months in indefinite hold because of that).
I’m kind of disappointed that you handwave all the information in this podcast with a “lack of imagination”.
I feel a bit like if I’d been told “don’t worry, everything will sort itself out”. Well, what if it doesn’t ? I’m not asking for a scenario in which everything turns to be fine because this or this technology exists. I know it’s a possibility. I’m wondering if things will really turn out that way.
I read the book Life after fossil fuels and it felt to me that she really tried to take a look at the solutions proposed, in more depth than almost anyone I’ve seen. Anything you can think of is probably on her website Energy skeptic, but it’s more of a mess (and of course, pessimistic, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise).
But even if we somehow find a solution to replace almost all our fossil-based industrial system by something powered by intermittent electricity (the biggest ‘if’ in any sentence), I am still worrying over several points :
Time constraints
It would take time to do research and put into place these solutions. Replacing all of our industrial system that took many decades to build would take loads of time.
Renewables, so far, can replace electricity production. But if needs more complex supply chains to go beyond that (batteries, which needs mines that take time to be opened).
Right now less than 1% of truck transportation, ship transportation, cement making, steel making, most metal smelting, fertilizer production, mineral extraction, is made using electricity (and I’m not even talking about renewable electricity)
This means that until, say, 70% of the infrastructure switches to being powered by renewables, increases in oil, gas and coal prices (or at least decreases in availability) will have a huge impact on the affordability on the tranport of almost all commodities (leading to increase in prices in many place), and on food production.
Question 1 : How long do you think it will take to do the switch from <1% to 70% renewable, for these infrastructure I talked about ?
Question 2: In the meantime, wouldn’t these constraints risk putting a limit on economic growth for quite an extended period ?
About your other points:
We can leave EROI out of the debate for now, I think, we do not have the same ways to use it so it complicates things (and the man in the tweets you referred to as well, since my main point is rather that a society needs a high EROI to maintain its complexity).
It sounds unlikely that the end system would provide services as cheap and in a volume as large as is currently done by using abundant and energy dense fossil fuels. Simply, a sustainable system would have more limits (constraints of land for plastic, less or no specialty metals, declining ore grades, storage that requires a lot of materials, water constrained by climate change). Won’t that impact economic growth ?
When I talk about lifeboats, I’m talking about the fact that, for instance, our current food system is extremely dependent on many inputs: a steady flow of oil, a working financial system, a steady flow of natural gas from fertilizers , a steady flow of phosphorus, a steady flow of water… Of course, I can assume that all of this can keep working perfectly fine in the future. But what happens if one of these fails? I’m not talking just about stockpiling (even though 60 days of diesel is a start). I’m thinking about finding ways to make the agricultural system less dependant on energy and the economic system—because we won’t be able to rehaul that in 61 days.
I’m sorry your situation has deteriorated from the FTX scandal, that must be very difficult. A lot of people have it much worse than me!
I don’t see this as an argument between “everything will turn out fine” and “things will end badly”, but “things will go badly for very specific reasons to do with materials accessibility” and “materials accessibility is not the limiting factor”. I consider something a lack of imagination where every aspect of the solution exists, but for cost reasons we don’t currently combine them in most supply chains. Entirely electrified car factories already exist https://www.hyundai.news/eu/articles/press-releases/gone-green-hyundais-first-factory-powered-by-100-percent-renewable-energy.html. I haven’t read Alice Friedmann’s book, but her website seems replete with the time-lacking EROI error that we discussed above, as well as an inability to see that our current production chain is not the only way we can go about manufacturing things (for instance, there are plenty of sulfur sources appart from oil, it’s just we currently exploit a byproduct of oil manufacture). I think I’m still waiting for historic examples where a material shortage has resulted in anything more than temporary economic slowdown and protests against corrupt regimes. The gilet jaunes protests are the closest I can think of, which hasn’t come close to civilisation-threatening. Maybe if there were a clearer pipeline from this to fascism.
Coal is a plentiful resource, and in the worst-case energy crunch, would be used as a substitute for oil and gas. We see some of this happening in electricity in Europe at the moment. You can make a near-kerosene product out of coal, which with some lubricating materials should be adaptable for diesel use in extremis https://www.technologyreview.com/2006/04/19/39349/clean-diesel-from-coal/. This would be environmentally devastating and somewhat expensive, but not really more civilisation-threatening than climate change in general. The general point, that models need to account for a huge range of ways we can substitute one material for another, is the fundamental weakness of this argument.
q1) There are an number of studies showing that replacing the a very large fraction of the grid with variable energy is achievable with current technology, some are summarised in this metastudy https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00695-4. Notably all of these studies suggest a lower cost than the current wholesale cost of electricity in Europe! The pace at which this can be done is a normal subject for the IAMs that you so distrust, which at least in some models is done before 2050, though it’s very inconsistent—many scenarios aiming for 1.5C that never reach 70% electrification. They usually reach more than 70% renewable though, soon after 2040. I may have mislead you above with my focus on electrification; several areas of society are projected to remain liquid-based (if biofuel/hydrogen) for some time in a lot of IAMs, though I’m personally skeptical about this. I’ve plotted the fraction of energy from renewable sources and the fraction of energy use from electricity in the AR6 database of scenarios classified as C1 (low overshoot of 1.5C) below.
q2) Yes, I think a lower rate of growth is likely than in an ideal world without material/oil constraints. But it’s not clear that growth is negative, nor that slower growth, particularly in developed nations, is that bad. Would high resource costs trigger civilizational collapse? Even with higher fuel prices, the declining fraction of wealth spent on food has a ways to go before we reach anything comparable to, say, the 1950s, so I find it hard to see a mechanism for anything dramatic. While energy is used in making food, it’s not the dominant factor, and over long time periods we see the correlation between oil price and food price is not that strong https://ourworldindata.org/food-prices. Economically unfortunate, sure, but not an extinction risk.
Other than specific problems with lithium and copper, it’s not clear to me that we have a problem with total material lack, simply that we don’t recycle enough or make use of agricultural waste. More effort would go towards plastic recycling if the price point of oil were higher. Similarly there is a plentiful supply of plant-food minerals that are currently pumped from rocks to our faeces to the sea.
Backups to provide food in the event of a protracted energy crash is an interesting question. As above, I don’t expect anything like a 1:1 relation from the cost of energy, but in combination with climate variability and geopolitical factors it’s possible to envisage a real crunch on availability. I feel like the solutions are very dependent on how long we want to do this for and what fraction of the world needs to be sustained this way. But the discussion of various forms of permaculture and nutrient-recycling, while interesting, should probably be handled elsewhere (and by people who know more about it than I do). Generally, working on better recycling does seem like an under-utilised EA cause area that would solve a number of these problems, and is probably cheaper to begin sooner rather than later. I don’t think I need to agree with very many of your above points to agree with this as the process is energy-saving and also protects the environment/enables more agriculture by avoiding mining.
You may be glad to note that on several occasions when writing my responses I have had cause to exclaim “he’s less wrong than I thought!” I think this is all anyone can really ask for in an internet argument.
Hi !
It’s a period with a lot of uncertainties but don’t worry, I can manage. Many people have it worse, indeed, and are more in need of help.
I am working on a post (well, probably in several parts) that aims to address the usual counterpoints to the problem of energy depletion: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1l-VI5gR-xGaUL95tvNgZ_BsXFB-aUQOtlug9zC-sn3M/edit#
Since you are good at challenging my position, maybe you could find some mistakes that would help improve the post. I talk about substitution and coal and transition scenarios and and whether adaptation is possible.
For me, the core issue is scale. Every individual aspect of the solution might exist, and can work in a small system, but does that mean it can scale up to what our industrial society requires? Or worse, to the ever-increasing requirements of economic growth?
There are other ways of manufacturing things, yes. But there are also constraints of time and investment: right now, for materials this is the main constraint, since a mine takes on average 16 years to go from exploration to production. Several organizations, like the World Bank, the IEA, the IMF, McKinsey and Company and Eurometaux have all issued reports warning of this growing problem.
Ah, I had not seen that, good point. Plus, they seemed to have done a lot of efficiency.
Does the materials that are used in the factory (metals, plastics) have been produced with renewables as well ? I haven’t seen that info in the article.
It’s hard to pinpoint for historical examples at the global level, since a feature of our current civilization is interconnectedness. Every time a material shortage arised somewhere, it was possible to compensate with the production somewhere else (especially for oil). This means that in the last 70 years we haven’t really tested yet a situation where oil is lacking everywhere, over an extended period.
Still, there are some analysts asserting that oil depletion in Syria and Venezuela were a serious factor in the collapse of these states. Of course, the economy of these states was highly reliant on oil, so a peak had more of a local impact. But I suppose one could make the case that our global economy is also extremely dependent on oil and fossil fuels at large, given the tight relationship between energy and GDP, so the analogy would hold out.
As for a pipeline to fascism, it seems pretty straightforward: declining revenues, rising inequalities (as is happening right now as well), loss of trust in institutions, increasing polarization (boosted by mass media and social networks)…
A crucial factor would be rising food prices, especially, as you said, since geopolitcial factors and climate change would weigh in. The Our World in data article is interesting and shows there’s some margin—but it seems to leave out natural gas. Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN FAO, told Bloomberg TV that unaffordable fertilizer prices (due to soaring natural gas prices) could reduce global grain production by up to 40% in the next planting season.
Well, the big difference is that the transition should take place at a moment where the energy required to build and transport windmills and solar panels would be much more expensive, and the economic system would be in a crisis meaning a lot more volatility.
I wouldn’t think that our current focus on growth is “ideal”—since it doesn’t add much happiness beyond a certain threshold and goes hand in hand with environmental degradation. I definitely think that it’s possible to live well with less energy, especially in rich countries where, and that we should have aimed for a reasonable level of consumption. As you said, there’s some margin before getting to threatening food prices (then again, rich countries) - which is why I’m more worried by sudden interruptions there.
This is the reason I’m worried: high resource costs would, in all likelihood, mean a decline in economic growth. However, our entire economic system depends on the economy growing, and I fear an unplanned degrowth can go pretty poorly.
Our complex economy is based on investment. The reason people invest is that they think that they will be getting more in the future, not less—and this requires growth. If the economy declines, why invest if there’s less trust that you’ll profit from that?
Debt is doubling every 7-8 years, while the economy doubles every 20-25 years. This is unsustainable, and at some point this will to a realization that a large part of our debt will not be repaid—especially if there is a recession. This will inevitably lead to a “correction”—the form of which is unsure. One scenario could be a “run on the bank”, which could by itself lead to a massive economic crisis, the bankruptcy of many actors, and big supply chain disruption.
Of course, there’s no guarantee things will end up this way, but it’s a possible pathway. The economy has gotten back from milder shocks, but the strength of future economic shocks is expected to get bigger and bigger in the future (especially if we add environmental damage ), so we can’t assume everything will sort itself out.
This would lead to questions for which there’s no clear answer (as said in Post 2). In the past, there was a feedback loop with more growth leading to more energy extraction leading to more growth: what happens if this goes into reverse? Will investment hold up for natural gas and oil extraction? If trust in the monetary system is lost, how will trade over countries take place? Will country with a monetary system? To pursue economic growth at all costs, won’t some nations resort to wars over resources ?
Another problem is that the amount of interest would keep growing in the economy. In practice, it acts as a wealth pump, allowing loaners to get a larger and larger share of the economy unless the economy is growing. In this case, this would drive inequality (and social unrest) to unprecedented levels.
Moreover, our shared objective, as a society, is growth—having more purchasing power. If this stops being the case, what can replace this shared objective? Nationalism? Promoting your in-group at the expense of others? A focus on the local network of people that live around you?
This is why I think the end of economic growth is a big deal: it changes everything. There are of course scenarios where things end up being ok (well, depends for who) but there’s no guarantee we’ll end up in these scenarios—especially since this would lead us into the realm of “unthought futures”, so different we have trouble imagining them.
Glad you’re thinking this way! I also find the exchange very interesting, and it lead me to change my position on several points. This is how I can progress, and I should thank you for that.
On your new document: I think I generally nod along to the peak oil and efficiency stuff. The renewables section is unconvincing, as you might imagine from our discussion above. You are right that there are a bunch of problems with IAMs making simplifications, but you don’t demonstrate that any of the factors they are missing would seriously change the results of them. It’s good to see that some of your arguments have grown more nuanced, but it also makes reviewing it more complicated and I don’t really have the time to debug the report in detail. I’m somewhat (pleasantly?) surprised that at the end of this all you’re suggesting that energy depletion might be good for reducing extinction risk though, I don’t know to what extent that flips the whole of this conversation—maybe you are actually the optimistic one!
These studies show that mineral requirements for clean energy grow rapidly. But they don’t show that the requirements are actually that high in most cases, as they state the ratios “for energy technology”. Currently we don’t use a lot of minerals in energy provision, so a quadrupling of that amount sounds dramatic but doesn’t represent a particularly large global consumption increase. Quote from the IEA: “There is no shortage of resources. Economically viable reserves have been
growing despite continued production growth… However, declining ore quality poses multiple challenges for extraction and
processing costs, emissions and waste volumes.” So the problem is still one of energy, rather than actual availability, which is why power is more important than minerals. So really the minerals question is still a renewables question.
Of the minerals shown here to require more than 100% of their current levels in 2050, only lithium would not be fairly easy to replace or produce for a small efficiency penalty (graphite is just carbon, indium is used in solar cells but can be replaced with graphene https://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=3942, cobalt & vanadium are used in batteries and and all have known substitutions). There’s some good stuff in this twitter thread, although it doesn’t have citations for everything it needs.
The historic examples you give are of the resource curse; societies becoming dependent on extracting commodities. I’m looking for examples of societies falling because they can’t buy commodities. E.g. I might have expected the increase in guano price to have created a food shortage and thus civilisational collapse, but as far as I know we didn’t see that; similarly, the rise in fertiliser prices you mention don’t seem to have had a rise in fascism so far—indeed, the elections so far since the invasion started have gone better for the left than might be expected.
I reiterate that debt economics aren’t my field, but I’m skeptical that they provide a barrier comparable to physics. There is clearly a secular trend towards rising debt, but I think you’re overestimating it; this IMF graph of global debt-to-gdp only grows at 1%/year from 2000-2018.
I feel like the majority of people I know don’t really have personal finance growth as their primary objective in life, and I don’t see how our society does either—it’s almost an accident of economics at this point.
I hope that virtualisation and renewable power means we can happily all bring on the great stagnation!
Hi !
Thanks for the answer, sorry I didn’t reply earlier. I started working on another project for EA France, aiming to identify impactful charities working in France, so I had much less time to spend on the topic of energy depletion. I didn’t want to do a rushed answer, but didn’t find the time to dig into the topic once again… you know how it goes.
So instead, I’ll just publish an update on my thinking on the topic (while keeping in minf that I have found several important articles that I have to read).
So far, I’ve updated more positively on renewables—their improvement is indeed faster than just about anyone had anticipated (which makes papers obsolete as soon as they’re a few years old, and therefore makes it very difficult to get properly informed on the subject).
Several articles I’ve read have indeed made me update on them. There were several elements where I had underestimated adaptability. The EROI of renewables is indeed correct.
I have a higher probability of an energy transition “from the top”, where we maintain energy growth (which isn’t necessarily good news, given that the more energy we have, the greater our capacity to destroy our environment and generate existential risks).
Your link about the Twitter thread exposing the limits to the GTK report was indeed interesting. I also found an article here that showed several other limits.
I’m talking less and less about a 2050 timeframe (which is what most of the litterature talks about). However, I’m more worried about what short-term disruptions could imply.
Indeed, my worries are more about the fact that limits on fossil fuels are probably short-term : and that time constraints could prove significant. Going from a system where almost all trucks, or cement making, or steel making, or fertilizers, or hydrogen, or plastics (etc.) are dependent on fossil fuels, to a system where >50% of these are not fossil… this is going to take time, and I’m worried about what would happen during this time.
Same goes for storage : batteries are improving… but it seems that we’re a long way from the deployment speed required for seasonal storage in order to have a stabilized grid.
As a French Energy expert stated (prominent member of EDF) :
It’s the “chaos” scenario that worries me.
It seems pretty clear to me that growth is the main goal of our society—and that it stopping would have far reaching consequences. As I said, a society where everyone’s share of the pie is growing is very different than one where everybody is competing to secure access to declining resources—the degree of trust is not the same. Especially when some wealthy people in society have the ability to agregate more and more resources, as is currently happening.
The importance of financial growth is exemplified by the fact that “degrowthers” have besically no traction on a political level, despite clear evidence on their side of a strong correlation between environmental impact and growth.
The more I look at it, the more the global economy appears to be working like a Ponzi scheme—requring an ever growing amount of capital and energy and resources to keep everyone’s trust in the fact that everyone’s investments will be paid out later. At some point, it has to stop. The question is : how do you end a Ponzi scheme in a smooth way?
Still, the future is full of weird stuff, so we’ll see. I’ve had less time to keep an eye on these subjects recently—I’ve got several interesting papers to look at (and I’ll check your point on minerals and debt). I’ll update then.