I agree it’s hard to police how people use a word; thus, I figured it would be better to just taboo the word entirely.
I totally agree that it’s hard to use reference classes correctly, because of the reference class tennis problem. I figured it was outside the scope of this post to explain this, but I was thinking about making a follow-up… at any rate, I’m optimistic that if people actually use the words “reference class” instead of “outside view” this will remind them to notice how there are more than one reference class available, how it’s important to argue that the one you are using is the best, etc.
I agree it’s hard to police how people use a word; thus, I figured it would be better to just taboo the word entirely.
I totally agree that it’s hard to use reference classes correctly, because of the reference class tennis problem. I figured it was outside the scope of this post to explain this, but I was thinking about making a follow-up… at any rate, I’m optimistic that if people actually use the words “reference class” instead of “outside view” this will remind them to notice how there are more than one reference class available, how it’s important to argue that the one you are using is the best, etc.