Good point, I’ll add analogy to the list. Much that is called reference class forecasting is really just analogy, and often not even a good analogy.
I really think we should taboo “outside view.” If people are forced to use the term “reference class” to describe what they are doing, it’ll be more obvious when they are doing epistemically shitty things, because the term “reference class” invites the obvious next questions: 1. What reference class? 2. Why is that the best reference class to use?
Good point, I’ll add analogy to the list. Much that is called reference class forecasting is really just analogy, and often not even a good analogy.
I really think we should taboo “outside view.” If people are forced to use the term “reference class” to describe what they are doing, it’ll be more obvious when they are doing epistemically shitty things, because the term “reference class” invites the obvious next questions: 1. What reference class? 2. Why is that the best reference class to use?