ACE influencing significantly more funding than we distribute directly, this influence varying by charity
You have estimates for the additional funding charities get as a result of your recommendation (accounting for additional grants from ACE, and donations from individual donors)? If so, you could analyse the cost-effectiveness of that additional funding.
it being especially difficult to estimate for charities we haven’t recommended before
Have you considered assessing the marginal cost-effectiveness of charities you have recommended in the past, and the overall cost-effectiveness of charities you have never recommended?
[...] For THL’s plans to expand the Open Wing Alliance, for instance, we assessed the cost-effectiveness (and theory of change) of the OWA itself, not THL’s overall cost-effectiveness.
[...] For these reasons and others, I’m not sure investigating the marginal cost-effectiveness of OWA Europe and Africa specifically would have been the best use of limited evaluation time, but we do that kind of analysis when we think it’s decision-relevant.
The programs from THL you assessed had a cost of 7.96 M$ (= (7.65 + 0.311)*10^6), 19.9 (= 7.96*10^6/​(399*10^3)) times the amount you granted to THL in 2025. I understand you made more funding go to THL than what you granted, but still significantly less than 19.9 times as much? If so, I think the cost-effectiveness analysis could have focussed on more marginal spending. I believe the marginal cost-effectiveness of large programs could be significantly lower than their overall cost-effectiveness. THL’s programs are quite large. So I would have thought that assessing their marginal cost-effectiveness is especially important.
You have estimates for the additional funding charities get as a result of your recommendation (accounting for additional grants from ACE, and donations from individual donors)? If so, you could analyse the cost-effectiveness of that additional funding.
Have you considered assessing the marginal cost-effectiveness of charities you have recommended in the past, and the overall cost-effectiveness of charities you have never recommended?
The programs from THL you assessed had a cost of 7.96 M$ (= (7.65 + 0.311)*10^6), 19.9 (= 7.96*10^6/​(399*10^3)) times the amount you granted to THL in 2025. I understand you made more funding go to THL than what you granted, but still significantly less than 19.9 times as much? If so, I think the cost-effectiveness analysis could have focussed on more marginal spending. I believe the marginal cost-effectiveness of large programs could be significantly lower than their overall cost-effectiveness. THL’s programs are quite large. So I would have thought that assessing their marginal cost-effectiveness is especially important.