Hmm, fwiw, I spontaneously think something like this is overwhelmingly likely.
Even in the (imo unlikely) case of AI research basically stagnating from now on, I expect AI applications to have effects that will significantly affect the broader public and not make them think anything close to “what a nothingburger” (e.g. like I’ve heard it happen for nanotechnology). E.g. I’m thinking of things like the broad availabiltiy of personal assistants & AI companions, automating of increasingly many tasks, impacts on education, on the productivity of software developers.
And in case we’ll also see a stagnation of significant applications, I expect this would be caused by some external event (e.g. say a severe economic or financial crisis) that will also make people not think of the current moment as crying wolf.
Hmm, fwiw, I spontaneously think something like this is overwhelmingly likely.
Even in the (imo unlikely) case of AI research basically stagnating from now on, I expect AI applications to have effects that will significantly affect the broader public and not make them think anything close to “what a nothingburger” (e.g. like I’ve heard it happen for nanotechnology). E.g. I’m thinking of things like the broad availabiltiy of personal assistants & AI companions, automating of increasingly many tasks, impacts on education, on the productivity of software developers.
And in case we’ll also see a stagnation of significant applications, I expect this would be caused by some external event (e.g. say a severe economic or financial crisis) that will also make people not think of the current moment as crying wolf.