It is certainly true that the human loss and prosperity averted by making concessions is important. However, in the long term, I’m not sure the arguments above hold. My impression from historians’ opinion, is that the only reason why Great Britain did ok by conceding to Germany to conquer the Sudeten was that GB was not prepared for a war with Germany. However, what was clear is that Hitler’s demands would not stop there. Similarly, why would Putin stop there if conceded those things? I’m not sure, I think he would keep demanding and imposing a long-term toll on people in Ukraine and other countries.
Beyond that:
I agree that concessions 1 and 2 above might be kind of ok, but I think Ukrainians have so much more to lose from not going into the EU than what Russia could win. Eg, economic development.
The war from Russia’s point of view is not going as a triumphal march.
It is possible that this war will cost Putin a lot of reputation. Since it is a dictatorship it may not matter so much in the short term, but I expect this to damage his grip on power.
It should have been Ukraine to decide on concessions, not NATO.
So, I am not very qualified for my opinions, and I am uncertain how to balance the two options that were available. But I think it is possible that imposing these costs on bullies, even if they win once, makes their strategy unprofitable and unsustainable in the long term.
I agree that Putin would probably have an extended list of demands, many of which would not be worth meeting. The question is whether there was a compromise last week that would have been better than the war we are now seeing.
I’m not sure I understand your first bullet point—obviously I’d love to see Ukraine join the EU. But now they won’t anyway. What’s the pathway from this war to EU membership?
I agree in an ideal world Ukraine would decide on concessions, but they have now had these regions taken by force. Is this really a better outcome for Ukranians?
I’m not sure I understand your first bullet point—obviously I’d love to see Ukraine join the EU. But now they won’t anyway. What’s the pathway from this war to EU membership?
I think our disagreement lies in what is the likely outcome of this. I believe you think Ukrainians will have to concede on everything. And while he seems decided to conquer all of Ukraine, I would say some sort of compromise will be reached before that.
I don’t completely disagree with your prediction about the outcome, but it seems highly likely to me that the compromise will be worse for Ukraine (and the West/world) than the concessions I outlined. Eg puppet government in Kyiv, death of Ukrainian democracy. I think Plus, this way thousands of people died from warfare and we carry the risk of nuclear war.
It is certainly true that the human loss and prosperity averted by making concessions is important. However, in the long term, I’m not sure the arguments above hold. My impression from historians’ opinion, is that the only reason why Great Britain did ok by conceding to Germany to conquer the Sudeten was that GB was not prepared for a war with Germany. However, what was clear is that Hitler’s demands would not stop there. Similarly, why would Putin stop there if conceded those things? I’m not sure, I think he would keep demanding and imposing a long-term toll on people in Ukraine and other countries.
Beyond that:
I agree that concessions 1 and 2 above might be kind of ok, but I think Ukrainians have so much more to lose from not going into the EU than what Russia could win. Eg, economic development.
The war from Russia’s point of view is not going as a triumphal march.
It is possible that this war will cost Putin a lot of reputation. Since it is a dictatorship it may not matter so much in the short term, but I expect this to damage his grip on power.
It should have been Ukraine to decide on concessions, not NATO.
So, I am not very qualified for my opinions, and I am uncertain how to balance the two options that were available. But I think it is possible that imposing these costs on bullies, even if they win once, makes their strategy unprofitable and unsustainable in the long term.
I agree that Putin would probably have an extended list of demands, many of which would not be worth meeting. The question is whether there was a compromise last week that would have been better than the war we are now seeing.
I’m not sure I understand your first bullet point—obviously I’d love to see Ukraine join the EU. But now they won’t anyway. What’s the pathway from this war to EU membership?
I agree in an ideal world Ukraine would decide on concessions, but they have now had these regions taken by force. Is this really a better outcome for Ukranians?
I think our disagreement lies in what is the likely outcome of this. I believe you think Ukrainians will have to concede on everything. And while he seems decided to conquer all of Ukraine, I would say some sort of compromise will be reached before that.
I don’t completely disagree with your prediction about the outcome, but it seems highly likely to me that the compromise will be worse for Ukraine (and the West/world) than the concessions I outlined. Eg puppet government in Kyiv, death of Ukrainian democracy. I think Plus, this way thousands of people died from warfare and we carry the risk of nuclear war.