I’ve discovered something that is either a bug in the code, or a parameter that isn’t explained super well. Under “How likely is it to work” I assume “it” refers to AGI safety. If so, this parameter is reversed—the more likely I say AGI safety is to work, the higher the x-risk becomes. If I set it to 0%, the program reliably tells me there’s no chance the world ends.
I made the text a bit more clear. As for the bug, it didn’t affect the end result of the Fermi estimation but how I computed the intermediate “probability of doom” was wrong: I forgot to take into account situations where AGI safety ended up being impossible… It is fixed now.
Thank you for the feedback!