I agree with him on inputs, but often the expected value is the most important output, in which case point estimates are still informative (sometimes more so than ranges). Also, CIs are often not the most informative indicator of uncertainty; a CEAC, CEAF, VOI, or p(error) given a known WTP threshold is often more useful, though perhaps less so in a CBA rather than a CEA/CUA.
If you have a sophisticated audience, sure. But outside a few niche subfields, very few people working in policy understand any of those things. My advice is for dealing with an audience of typical policy makers, the kind of people that you have to explain the concept of ‘value of statistical life’ to. If you give them an expected value, they will mentally collapse it into a point estimate with near-zero uncertainty, and/or treat it as a talking point that is barely connected to any real analysis.
I agree with him on inputs, but often the expected value is the most important output, in which case point estimates are still informative (sometimes more so than ranges). Also, CIs are often not the most informative indicator of uncertainty; a CEAC, CEAF, VOI, or p(error) given a known WTP threshold is often more useful, though perhaps less so in a CBA rather than a CEA/CUA.
If you have a sophisticated audience, sure. But outside a few niche subfields, very few people working in policy understand any of those things. My advice is for dealing with an audience of typical policy makers, the kind of people that you have to explain the concept of ‘value of statistical life’ to. If you give them an expected value, they will mentally collapse it into a point estimate with near-zero uncertainty, and/or treat it as a talking point that is barely connected to any real analysis.