Doing the Monte Carlo using my sheet is easier than the method you presented for avoiding the Monte Carlo. It presents the mean, which is the expected value, and also the confidence interval.
There are some audiences that already understand uncertainty and have a SBF-style desire to only maximize expected utility. These audiences are rare. Most people need to be shown the uncertainty (even if they do not yet know they need it).
Some people will want or need to take the ‘safe option’ with a higher floor rather than try to maximize the expected value.
When done right, the confidence interval includes uncertainty in implementation. If it is done by an A-team that gets things right, you will get better results. Knowing the possible range is key to know how fragile the expected result is and how much care will be required to get things right.
Several points:
Doing the Monte Carlo using my sheet is easier than the method you presented for avoiding the Monte Carlo. It presents the mean, which is the expected value, and also the confidence interval.
There are some audiences that already understand uncertainty and have a SBF-style desire to only maximize expected utility. These audiences are rare. Most people need to be shown the uncertainty (even if they do not yet know they need it).
Some people will want or need to take the ‘safe option’ with a higher floor rather than try to maximize the expected value.
When done right, the confidence interval includes uncertainty in implementation. If it is done by an A-team that gets things right, you will get better results. Knowing the possible range is key to know how fragile the expected result is and how much care will be required to get things right.