A problem with this post is that its conclusion that the “left” poses more “risk” is based on the number of individual perceived objections from the left. However, even if this were true, this conflates the number of separate issues with some attempt at a measure of the overall “magnitude” of risk, without taking into account the number of people complaining based on each objection, and/or the “intensity”/impact of their complaints
I am aware of the magnitudes of costs and that is what drives the overall judgment. Your assumption that I’m only thinking about the # of points is incorrect. In my experience the severity and intractability of leftist hostility is systematically worse than right-wing hostility, I just did not go into detail about that in the OP. In any case, this judgment is secondary and not central to the post.
I also think that research is lacking, as a recent podcast (80000 Hours? Someone help me if you can remember; it’s really hard to search content on podcasts) suggested that the rise of extreme right-wing populist nationalist politics is creating risks in the nuclear warfare space.
I’d say the EA movement does not have a refined, close engagement and understanding of nuclear deterrence/safety in the same way that it does for its top 3 cause priorities. This becomes a more generic judgment on whose political ideology is better in general; we could just as easily judge people on the full variety of political issues. Which of course is a valid project, but beyond the scope of this post.
Another thing is that the EA survey consistently suggests that most EAs are left-wing. Anecdotally, most of those I know seem to be reformist, centre-left. Both the statistics and my experience suggests that the centre left, perhaps those who are disillusioned with more extreme leftist positions such as proposals for revolutionary communism, may be a significant source of people coming into EA
Sure, but that’s within the space of relatively moderate politics as I explicitly define it.
I am aware of the magnitudes of costs and that is what drives the overall judgment. Your assumption that I’m only thinking about the # of points is incorrect. In my experience the severity and intractability of leftist hostility is systematically worse than right-wing hostility, I just did not go into detail about that in the OP. In any case, this judgment is secondary and not central to the post.
I’d say the EA movement does not have a refined, close engagement and understanding of nuclear deterrence/safety in the same way that it does for its top 3 cause priorities. This becomes a more generic judgment on whose political ideology is better in general; we could just as easily judge people on the full variety of political issues. Which of course is a valid project, but beyond the scope of this post.
Sure, but that’s within the space of relatively moderate politics as I explicitly define it.