An implicit problem with this sort of analysis is that it assumes the critiques are wrong,
We know them to be wrong in basic logical terms as attacks against EA—none of these things require that EA itself change or die, just cause areas or other ideas within EA. This point has been made repeatedly to the point of consensus.
For instance, if we assume that systemic change towards anti-capitalist ideals actually is correct, or that taking refugees does actually have long run bad effects on culture, then the criticism of these views and the pressure on the community from political groups to adopt these views is actually a good thing, and provides a net-positive benefit for EA in the long term by providing incentives to adopt the correct views
You missed the point of the post. I’m making no judgment on whether e.g. anticapitalism or refugees are good or bad. If you do that, then you’re already playing the game of making sweeping judgments about society writ large, which I’m not doing. I’m simply analyzing the direct impact on EA capital.
Internal debate within the EA community is far better at reaching truthful conclusions than whatever this sort of external pressure can accomplish. Empirically, it has not been the case that such external pressure has yielded benefits for EAs’ understanding of the world.
Internal debate within the EA community is far better at reaching truthful conclusions than whatever this sort of external pressure can accomplish. Empirically, it has not been the case that such external pressure has yielded benefits for EAs’ understanding of the world.
It can be the case that external pressure is helpful in shaping directions EVEN if EA has to reach conclusions internally. I would put forward that this pressure has been helpful to EA already in reaching conclusions and finding new cause areas, and will continue to be helpful to EA in the future.
I haven’t seen any examples of cause areas or conclusions that were discovered because of political antipathy towards EA. The limiting factor is robust evidence and analysis of cause areas.
I haven’t seen any examples of cause areas or conclusions that were discovered because of political antipathy towards EA.
Veganism is probably a good example here. Institutional decisionmaking might be another. I don’t think that political antipathy is the right way to view this, but rather just the general political climate shaping the thinking of EAs. Political antipathy is a consequence of the general system that produces both positive effects on EA thought, and political antipathy towards certain aspects of EA.
Who has complained that EA is bad because it ignored animals? EAs pursued animal issues on their own volition. Peter Singer has been the major animal rights philosopher in history. Animal interests are not even part of the general political climate.
Institutional decisionmaking might be another.
Looking at 80k Hours’ writeup on institutional decision making, I see nothing with notable relevance to people’s attacks on EA. EAs have been attacked for not wanting to overthrow capitalism, not wanting to reform international monetary/finance/trade institutions along the lines of global justice, and funding foreign aid that acts as a crutch for governments in the developing world. None of these things have a connection to better institutional decision making other than the mere fact that they pertain to the government’s structure and decisions (which is broad enough to be pretty meaningless). 80k Hours is looking at techniques on forecasting and judgment, drawing heavily upon psychology and decision theory. They are talking about things like prediction markets and forecasting that have been popular among EAs for a long time. There are no citations and no inspirations from any criticisms.
The general political climate does not deal with forecasting and prediction markets. The last time it did, prediction markets were derailed because the general political climate created opposition (the Policy Analysis Market in the Bush era).
It’s possible I’m wrong. I find it unlikely that veganism wasn’t influenced by existing political arguments for veganism. I find it unlikely that a focus on institutional decision making wasn’t influenced by existing political zeitgist around the problems with democracy and capitalism. I find it unlikely that the global poverty focus wasn’t influenced by the existing political zeitgeist around inequality.
All this stuff is in the water supply, the arguments and positions have been refined by different political parties moral intuitions and battle with the opposition. This causes problems when there’s opposition to EA values, sure, but it also provides the backdrop from which EAs are reasoning from.
It may be that EAs have somehow thrown off all of the existing arguments, cultural milleu, and basic stances and assumptions that have been honed for the past few generations, but that to me represents more of a failure of EA if true than anything else.
I find it unlikely that veganism wasn’t influenced by existing political arguments for veganism.
I find it obvious. What political arguments for veganism even exist? That it causes climate change? Yet EAs give more attention to the suffering impacts than to the climate impacts.
I find it unlikely that a focus on institutional decision making wasn’t influenced by existing political zeitgist around the problems with democracy and capitalism.
The mere idea that “there are problems with democracy and capitalism” is relatively widespread, not unique to leftism, and therefore doesn’t detract from my point that relatively moderate positions (which frequently acknowledge problems with democracy and capitalism) have better impacts on EA than extreme ones. The leftist zeitgeist is notably different and even contradictory with what EAs have put forward, as noted above.
I find it unlikely that the global poverty focus wasn’t influenced by the existing political zeitgeist around inequality.
People have focused on poverty as a target of charity for millennia, and people who worry about inequality (as opposed to worrying about poverty) are more stubborn towards EA ideas and demands.
it also provides the backdrop from which EAs are reasoning from.
There is an opportunity cost in not having a better backdrop. Even in a backdrop of political apathy, there would not be less information and less ideas (broadly construed) in the public sphere, just different ones and presented differently.
We know them to be wrong in basic logical terms as attacks against EA—none of these things require that EA itself change or die, just cause areas or other ideas within EA. This point has been made repeatedly to the point of consensus.
You missed the point of the post. I’m making no judgment on whether e.g. anticapitalism or refugees are good or bad. If you do that, then you’re already playing the game of making sweeping judgments about society writ large, which I’m not doing. I’m simply analyzing the direct impact on EA capital.
Internal debate within the EA community is far better at reaching truthful conclusions than whatever this sort of external pressure can accomplish. Empirically, it has not been the case that such external pressure has yielded benefits for EAs’ understanding of the world.
It can be the case that external pressure is helpful in shaping directions EVEN if EA has to reach conclusions internally. I would put forward that this pressure has been helpful to EA already in reaching conclusions and finding new cause areas, and will continue to be helpful to EA in the future.
I haven’t seen any examples of cause areas or conclusions that were discovered because of political antipathy towards EA. The limiting factor is robust evidence and analysis of cause areas.
Veganism is probably a good example here. Institutional decisionmaking might be another. I don’t think that political antipathy is the right way to view this, but rather just the general political climate shaping the thinking of EAs. Political antipathy is a consequence of the general system that produces both positive effects on EA thought, and political antipathy towards certain aspects of EA.
Who has complained that EA is bad because it ignored animals? EAs pursued animal issues on their own volition. Peter Singer has been the major animal rights philosopher in history. Animal interests are not even part of the general political climate.
Looking at 80k Hours’ writeup on institutional decision making, I see nothing with notable relevance to people’s attacks on EA. EAs have been attacked for not wanting to overthrow capitalism, not wanting to reform international monetary/finance/trade institutions along the lines of global justice, and funding foreign aid that acts as a crutch for governments in the developing world. None of these things have a connection to better institutional decision making other than the mere fact that they pertain to the government’s structure and decisions (which is broad enough to be pretty meaningless). 80k Hours is looking at techniques on forecasting and judgment, drawing heavily upon psychology and decision theory. They are talking about things like prediction markets and forecasting that have been popular among EAs for a long time. There are no citations and no inspirations from any criticisms.
The general political climate does not deal with forecasting and prediction markets. The last time it did, prediction markets were derailed because the general political climate created opposition (the Policy Analysis Market in the Bush era).
It’s possible I’m wrong. I find it unlikely that veganism wasn’t influenced by existing political arguments for veganism. I find it unlikely that a focus on institutional decision making wasn’t influenced by existing political zeitgist around the problems with democracy and capitalism. I find it unlikely that the global poverty focus wasn’t influenced by the existing political zeitgeist around inequality.
All this stuff is in the water supply, the arguments and positions have been refined by different political parties moral intuitions and battle with the opposition. This causes problems when there’s opposition to EA values, sure, but it also provides the backdrop from which EAs are reasoning from.
It may be that EAs have somehow thrown off all of the existing arguments, cultural milleu, and basic stances and assumptions that have been honed for the past few generations, but that to me represents more of a failure of EA if true than anything else.
I find it obvious. What political arguments for veganism even exist? That it causes climate change? Yet EAs give more attention to the suffering impacts than to the climate impacts.
The mere idea that “there are problems with democracy and capitalism” is relatively widespread, not unique to leftism, and therefore doesn’t detract from my point that relatively moderate positions (which frequently acknowledge problems with democracy and capitalism) have better impacts on EA than extreme ones. The leftist zeitgeist is notably different and even contradictory with what EAs have put forward, as noted above.
People have focused on poverty as a target of charity for millennia, and people who worry about inequality (as opposed to worrying about poverty) are more stubborn towards EA ideas and demands.
There is an opportunity cost in not having a better backdrop. Even in a backdrop of political apathy, there would not be less information and less ideas (broadly construed) in the public sphere, just different ones and presented differently.
Seems plausible.