4-7% real investment return assumes no TAI. TAI would speed up R&D on meat alternatives, but it would also speed up R&D on everything else. Cost-effectiveness of animal activism would go up in an environment where the cost-effectiveness of everything is going up, and the market rate of return is going up.
When clean meat arrives (if it does), the movement will need skilled campaigners, policy expertise, organisational infrastructure, relationships with policymakers, experienced leadership, and research to understand this whole TAI situation.
I don’t think this line of reasoning gives proper consideration to what TAI actually is. It’s an intelligence that surpasses almost all humans and can replace almost all human labor. All the jobs listed in that quote can be done cheaper and better by TAI than by humans. The possible exceptions are organizational infrastructure and relationships with policymakers, where connections matter much more than raw ability. Humans have a headstart on connections, so it will take longer before TAI can replace humans. (Even then, how much longer? Maybe 2–5 years? We’re not talking about decades.) But also consider that your human relationships with policymakers don’t matter if policymakers themselves are replaced by TAI. Even if they’re not de jure replaced, it’s very likely that human policymakers will become figureheads with TAI making all the decisions. That’s all assuming TAI doesn’t cause human extinction, which is the more likely outcome.
4-7% real investment return assumes no TAI. TAI would speed up R&D on meat alternatives, but it would also speed up R&D on everything else. Cost-effectiveness of animal activism would go up in an environment where the cost-effectiveness of everything is going up, and the market rate of return is going up.
I don’t think this line of reasoning gives proper consideration to what TAI actually is. It’s an intelligence that surpasses almost all humans and can replace almost all human labor. All the jobs listed in that quote can be done cheaper and better by TAI than by humans. The possible exceptions are organizational infrastructure and relationships with policymakers, where connections matter much more than raw ability. Humans have a headstart on connections, so it will take longer before TAI can replace humans. (Even then, how much longer? Maybe 2–5 years? We’re not talking about decades.) But also consider that your human relationships with policymakers don’t matter if policymakers themselves are replaced by TAI. Even if they’re not de jure replaced, it’s very likely that human policymakers will become figureheads with TAI making all the decisions. That’s all assuming TAI doesn’t cause human extinction, which is the more likely outcome.