Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Wagman 2020).
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, as mandated by the US Congress. The study is 6 months overdue.
The approaches of Mills 2014 and Reisner 2018 are compared in Hess 2021. Wagman 2020 also arrives to a significantly more optimistic conclusion that Robock’s group (emphasis mine):
Plain Language Summary
If the detonation of nuclear weapons causes large fires, the smoke emissions could block sunlight and affect the global climate. A commonly studied scenario is the climate impact that would be caused by the detonation of one hundred 15 kt nuclear weapons in a “regional nuclear exchange” between India and Pakistan (Mills et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000205, Reisner et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027331). We simulate the global climate impacts of this scenario using new models for predicting the fire plume and climate and find that, when smoke from the fires remains in the lower troposphere, it is quickly removed and the climate impact is minimal. Conversely, when fires inject smoke into the upper troposphere or higher, more smoke is transported to the stratosphere where enough light is blocked to cause global surface cooling. Our simulations show that the smoke from 100 simultaneous firestorms would block sunlight for about 4 yr, instead of the 8 to 15 yr predicted in other models. Climate impacts are also shown to be sensitive to assumptions about the composition of the smoke. Additionally, we show that the global effects of the fires are sensitive to fuel availability and consumption, factors which are uncertain for cities in India and Pakistan.
However, it is important to have in mind that an ASRS would also cause disruptions to the energy system, which would tend to make it worse.
For reference, I think these are the groups looking into this (you had already mentioned the 1st 2):
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Colorado, and Rutgers University (Mills 2014), which is Robock’s group.
Los Alamos National Laboratory (Reisner 2018).
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Wagman 2020).
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, as mandated by the US Congress. The study is 6 months overdue.
The approaches of Mills 2014 and Reisner 2018 are compared in Hess 2021. Wagman 2020 also arrives to a significantly more optimistic conclusion that Robock’s group (emphasis mine):
However, it is important to have in mind that an ASRS would also cause disruptions to the energy system, which would tend to make it worse.