(1) Way too much trust in the nuclear winter literature.
Relatedly, I recently came across this nice post by Naval Gazing (via XPT’s report, I think). The author’s conclusions suggest Toon 2008 (the study whose results are used to model the 150 Tg scenario in Xia 2022) overestimates the soot ejected into the stratosphere by a factor of 191 (= 1.5*2*2*(1 + 2)/​2*(2 + 3)/​2*(4 + 13)/​2):
I have not fact-checked the post, but I encouraged the author to crosspost it to EA Forum, and offered to do it myself.
I think this would be v valuable to post as it own post given the situation that still a lot of trust is put into the nuclear winter literature from Robock, Toon et al.
Relatedly, I recently came across this nice post by Naval Gazing (via XPT’s report, I think). The author’s conclusions suggest Toon 2008 (the study whose results are used to model the 150 Tg scenario in Xia 2022) overestimates the soot ejected into the stratosphere by a factor of 191 (= 1.5*2*2*(1 + 2)/​2*(2 + 3)/​2*(4 + 13)/​2):
I have not fact-checked the post, but I encouraged the author to crosspost it to EA Forum, and offered to do it myself.
I think this would be v valuable to post as it own post given the situation that still a lot of trust is put into the nuclear winter literature from Robock, Toon et al.
Done!