That’s right. When defined using a base 2 logarithm, the score can be interpreted as “bits of information over the maximally uncertain (uniform) distribution”. Forecasts assigning less probability mass to the true outcome than the uniform distribution result in a negative score.
That’s right. When defined using a base 2 logarithm, the score can be interpreted as “bits of information over the maximally uncertain (uniform) distribution”. Forecasts assigning less probability mass to the true outcome than the uniform distribution result in a negative score.