Thanks for this systematic exploration of galaxy-scale existential risks!
In my recent post, “Beyond Short-Termism: How δ and w Can Realign AI with Our Values,” I propose turning exactly these challenging long-term, large-scale ethical tradeoffs into two clear and manageable parameters:
δ — how far into the future our decisions explicitly care about.
w — how broadly our moral concern extends (e.g., future human colonies, alien life, sentient AI).
From this viewpoint, your argument becomes even clearer: interstellar expansion rapidly increases the number of independent actors (large w), which raises cumulative existential risks beyond our ability to manage uncertainties (δ × certainty).
Within the δ and w framework, there are concrete governance “knobs” to address exactly the risks you highlight:
Limit the planning horizon (T_max) via constitutional rules.
Only permit expansion once risk-estimates (certainty thresholds) are high enough.
Explicitly ensure that long-term moral value (δ × w) is demonstrably positive before taking action.
I’d be very curious if you (or other readers) find that framing the dilemma explicitly in terms of these two parameters makes it easier to prioritize governance and research, or if you see gaps I’m overlooking.
Here’s the link if you’d like to explore further—examples and details inside.
I agree when thinking about the long future we have to have better more robust moral frameworks and the time and moral circle expansion are very crucial factors that have to be taken into consideration
Thanks for this systematic exploration of galaxy-scale existential risks!
In my recent post, “Beyond Short-Termism: How δ and w Can Realign AI with Our Values,” I propose turning exactly these challenging long-term, large-scale ethical tradeoffs into two clear and manageable parameters:
δ — how far into the future our decisions explicitly care about.
w — how broadly our moral concern extends (e.g., future human colonies, alien life, sentient AI).
From this viewpoint, your argument becomes even clearer: interstellar expansion rapidly increases the number of independent actors (large w), which raises cumulative existential risks beyond our ability to manage uncertainties (δ × certainty).
Within the δ and w framework, there are concrete governance “knobs” to address exactly the risks you highlight:
Limit the planning horizon (T_max) via constitutional rules.
Only permit expansion once risk-estimates (certainty thresholds) are high enough.
Explicitly ensure that long-term moral value (δ × w) is demonstrably positive before taking action.
I’d be very curious if you (or other readers) find that framing the dilemma explicitly in terms of these two parameters makes it easier to prioritize governance and research, or if you see gaps I’m overlooking.
Here’s the link if you’d like to explore further—examples and details inside.
I agree when thinking about the long future we have to have better more robust moral frameworks and the time and moral circle expansion are very crucial factors that have to be taken into consideration