I’m unsure how to interpret “will probably doom”. 2 possible readings:
A highly technologically advanced civilization that tries to get really big will probably wind up wiping itself out due to the dynamics in this post. More than half of all highly technologically advanced civilizations that grow really big go extinct due to drastically increasing their attack surface to existential threats.
The following claim is probably true: a highly technologically advanced civilization that tries to get really big will almost certainly wind up wiping itself out due to the dynamics in this post. Almost every very large, highly technologically advanced civilization that grows big has a doom-level event spawn in a pocket of the civilization and spread to the rest of it.
The 2nd reading is big if true—it implies that the EV of the future arising from our civilization is much lower than it would otherwise seem, and that civilizations might be better off staying small—but I disagree with it.
For the first one I’m on the agree side, but it doesn’t change the overall story very much.
I’m unsure how to interpret “will probably doom”. 2 possible readings:
A highly technologically advanced civilization that tries to get really big will probably wind up wiping itself out due to the dynamics in this post. More than half of all highly technologically advanced civilizations that grow really big go extinct due to drastically increasing their attack surface to existential threats.
The following claim is probably true: a highly technologically advanced civilization that tries to get really big will almost certainly wind up wiping itself out due to the dynamics in this post. Almost every very large, highly technologically advanced civilization that grows big has a doom-level event spawn in a pocket of the civilization and spread to the rest of it.
The 2nd reading is big if true—it implies that the EV of the future arising from our civilization is much lower than it would otherwise seem, and that civilizations might be better off staying small—but I disagree with it.
For the first one I’m on the agree side, but it doesn’t change the overall story very much.