I’ll say the long happy future (i.e. lh) is a thousand times less likely than extinction… and the long miserable future (i.e. lm) is a hundred times less likely than that
Maybe I’m unduly optimistic, but I have trouble wrapping my head around how lm could be even that likely. (E.g. it seems like suicide provides at least some protection against worst-case scenarios, unless we’re somehow imagining such totalitarian control that the mistreated can’t even kill themselves? But if such control is possible, why wouldn’t the controllers just bliss out their subjects? The scenario makes no sense to me.)
How robust is the model’s conclusions to large changes in the probability of lm (e.g. reducing its probability by 3 − 6 orders of magnitude)?
Yes, it’s reasonably sensitive to this, though as you increase how risk averse you are, you also get extinction winning out even for lower and lower probabilities of lm. It’s really a tradeoff between those two.
On your concerns about the probability of lm: I think people very often don’t commit suicide even when their life falls below the level at which it’s worth living. This might be because of optimism about the future, or connection to others and the feeling of obligation towards them, or because of an instinct for survival.
And, an admittedly more boring objection:
Maybe I’m unduly optimistic, but I have trouble wrapping my head around how lm could be even that likely. (E.g. it seems like suicide provides at least some protection against worst-case scenarios, unless we’re somehow imagining such totalitarian control that the mistreated can’t even kill themselves? But if such control is possible, why wouldn’t the controllers just bliss out their subjects? The scenario makes no sense to me.)
How robust is the model’s conclusions to large changes in the probability of lm (e.g. reducing its probability by 3 − 6 orders of magnitude)?
Yes, it’s reasonably sensitive to this, though as you increase how risk averse you are, you also get extinction winning out even for lower and lower probabilities of lm. It’s really a tradeoff between those two.
On your concerns about the probability of lm: I think people very often don’t commit suicide even when their life falls below the level at which it’s worth living. This might be because of optimism about the future, or connection to others and the feeling of obligation towards them, or because of an instinct for survival.