It would make the post longer and more confusing I think, and not obviously more useful. Metaculus only allows up to 99% predictions, with increments of 1%, and I already exclude predictions of 1-9% and 91-99% from much of the analysis for reasons given in the post, thus excluding the specific area where I agree log scores are meaningfully better.
It would make the post longer and more confusing I think, and not obviously more useful. Metaculus only allows up to 99% predictions, with increments of 1%, and I already exclude predictions of 1-9% and 91-99% from much of the analysis for reasons given in the post, thus excluding the specific area where I agree log scores are meaningfully better.