“They conclude that temperatures can rise to 11 degrees Celsius before the share of uninhabitable areas begins to include most of today’s population. Even at 10 degrees Celsius, the damage is equivalent only to a recession that would set us back by 20 years. However, this still does not imply extinction.”
Do I understand you right, that they conclude that a rise of global average temperatures by 11 degrees Celsius will then begin to make uninhabitable areas of locations currently inhabited by people?
I’m not sure what OP meant, but what you said is bound to be false—some cities are going to be flooded much before we hit 11 degrees warming, and if I’m not mistaken also currently fertile areas will become deserts (maybe most of my country’s non-desert area?) by that point.
I have seen plenty of discussion from climate scientists warning against comparing the Anthropocene with earlier geologic time periods, and comparing humans with mammals alive during an earlier period is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
FYI, I believe that locking in a rise in global avg temperature of 14C can happen within a 100-year time frame. If it happens, Earth will certainly be uninhabitable but the mammals could all be dead before then.
My hopes for our long-term future rest with engineering technology that doesn’t exist yet.
“They conclude that temperatures can rise to 11 degrees Celsius before the share of uninhabitable areas begins to include most of today’s population. Even at 10 degrees Celsius, the damage is equivalent only to a recession that would set us back by 20 years. However, this still does not imply extinction.”
Do I understand you right, that they conclude that a rise of global average temperatures by 11 degrees Celsius will then begin to make uninhabitable areas of locations currently inhabited by people?
I’m not sure what OP meant, but what you said is bound to be false—some cities are going to be flooded much before we hit 11 degrees warming, and if I’m not mistaken also currently fertile areas will become deserts (maybe most of my country’s non-desert area?) by that point.
yes, but I wonder if my restatement is a correct interpretation of what the OP meant.
Yes, that is what I meant to say. The paper I’ve cited is in the references at the end if you’re interested in looking into it.
Thank you for taking the time out to comment :)
You are welcome.
I have seen plenty of discussion from climate scientists warning against comparing the Anthropocene with earlier geologic time periods, and comparing humans with mammals alive during an earlier period is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
FYI, I believe that locking in a rise in global avg temperature of 14C can happen within a 100-year time frame. If it happens, Earth will certainly be uninhabitable but the mammals could all be dead before then.
My hopes for our long-term future rest with engineering technology that doesn’t exist yet.