We should probably update that part of the website, current best estimate for our (GiveDirectly’s) ability to absorb is ~$1B in next 12 months, and growing quickly beyond that horizon. Will write a longer post with forecasts and timelines sometime soon.
I agree with the more general point you’re making though; even $1B is a small fraction of the numbers some people are throwing around and the operational reality of spending money effectively at scale is poorly understood.
We should probably update that part of the website, current best estimate for our (GiveDirectly’s) ability to absorb is ~$1B in next 12 months, and growing quickly beyond that horizon. Will write a longer post with forecasts and timelines sometime soon.
I agree with the more general point you’re making though; even $1B is a small fraction of the numbers some people are throwing around and the operational reality of spending money effectively at scale is poorly understood.