I think being skeptical here is probably smart. But even if Nan is off by some order of magnitude, and we believe there is some low probability the money comes through, the amounts of new philanthropic funding are very plausibly still very large, especially considering what goes into certain cause areas.
I find your advice to organizations compelling as well. Though on balance I’m likely to let their leadership figure what they are likely to win/lose from making such bets. Feels perfectly reasonable to get a whole lot of orgs that make heavy bets (alongside some, even perhaps very few, who don’t).
I think being skeptical here is probably smart. But even if Nan is off by some order of magnitude, and we believe there is some low probability the money comes through, the amounts of new philanthropic funding are very plausibly still very large, especially considering what goes into certain cause areas.
I find your advice to organizations compelling as well. Though on balance I’m likely to let their leadership figure what they are likely to win/lose from making such bets. Feels perfectly reasonable to get a whole lot of orgs that make heavy bets (alongside some, even perhaps very few, who don’t).