(Speaking for myself as someone who has also recommended donating to Horizon, not Julian or OP)
I basically think the public outputs of the fellows is not a good proxy for the effectiveness of the program (or basically any talent program). The main impact of talent programs, including Horizon, seems better measured by where participants wind up shortly after the program (on which Horizon seems objectively strong), plus a subjective assessment of how good the participants are. There just isn’t a lot of shareable data/info on the latter, so I can’t do much better than just saying “I’ve spent some time on this (rather than taking for granted that they’re good) and I think they’re good on average.” (I acknowledge that this is not an especially epistemically satisfying answer.)
Sounds reasonable. My concern is less that the fellows aren’t talented—I’m confident that they’re talented; or that Horizon isn’t good at placing fellows into important positions—it seems to have a good track record of doing that. My concern is more that the fellows might not use their positions to reduce x-risk. The public outputs of fellows are more relevant to that concern, I think.
(Speaking for myself as someone who has also recommended donating to Horizon, not Julian or OP)
I basically think the public outputs of the fellows is not a good proxy for the effectiveness of the program (or basically any talent program). The main impact of talent programs, including Horizon, seems better measured by where participants wind up shortly after the program (on which Horizon seems objectively strong), plus a subjective assessment of how good the participants are. There just isn’t a lot of shareable data/info on the latter, so I can’t do much better than just saying “I’ve spent some time on this (rather than taking for granted that they’re good) and I think they’re good on average.” (I acknowledge that this is not an especially epistemically satisfying answer.)
Sounds reasonable. My concern is less that the fellows aren’t talented—I’m confident that they’re talented; or that Horizon isn’t good at placing fellows into important positions—it seems to have a good track record of doing that. My concern is more that the fellows might not use their positions to reduce x-risk. The public outputs of fellows are more relevant to that concern, I think.