Ajeya Cotra’s median guess is that AGI is 18 years away; the last time I talked to a MIRI person, their median guess was 14 years. So the Cotra and MIRI camps seem super close to me in timelines (though you can find plenty of individuals whose median year is not in the 2036-2040 range).
If you look at (e.g.) animal welfare EAs vs. AI risk EAs, I expect a much larger gap in timeline beliefs.
Interesting, thanks. What about short timelines? (p(AGI by 2043) in Future Fund Worldview Prize terms)
Ajeya Cotra’s median guess is that AGI is 18 years away; the last time I talked to a MIRI person, their median guess was 14 years. So the Cotra and MIRI camps seem super close to me in timelines (though you can find plenty of individuals whose median year is not in the 2036-2040 range).
If you look at (e.g.) animal welfare EAs vs. AI risk EAs, I expect a much larger gap in timeline beliefs.