I’d agree that on the current margin, “EAs getting harder to find” could be a factor, as well as some combination of things like (#2-4).
Having said that, what seems like an underrated fact is that although EA outreach (CEA/80k/CFAR) deploys less funds than EA research (FHI/MIRI/CSER/...), a priori, I’d expect outreach to scale better—since research has to be more varied, and requires more specific skills. This leads to the question: why we don’t we yet have a proof of concept for turning ~$100M into high quality movement growth? Maybe this is the biggest issue. (#2) can explain why CEA hasn’t offered this. (#4) is more comprehensive, because it explain why 80k and others haven’t.
I’d agree that on the current margin, “EAs getting harder to find” could be a factor, as well as some combination of things like (#2-4).
Having said that, what seems like an underrated fact is that although EA outreach (CEA/80k/CFAR) deploys less funds than EA research (FHI/MIRI/CSER/...), a priori, I’d expect outreach to scale better—since research has to be more varied, and requires more specific skills. This leads to the question: why we don’t we yet have a proof of concept for turning ~$100M into high quality movement growth? Maybe this is the biggest issue. (#2) can explain why CEA hasn’t offered this. (#4) is more comprehensive, because it explain why 80k and others haven’t.