I definitely agree that information on these topics is ripe for aggregation/curation.
My instinct is to look to the VC/startup community for some insight here, specifically around uncertainty (they’re in the business of “predicting/quantifying/derisking uncertain futures/projects”). Two quick examples:
One difference between for-profits and non-profits is that the worst case scenario for a for-profit is going out of business. The worst case for a non-profit is unintentionally causing harm. Someone mentioned that there aren’t a lot of historians in EA—I wonder if this is because the history of attempts to do good is discouraging.
I definitely agree that information on these topics is ripe for aggregation/curation.
My instinct is to look to the VC/startup community for some insight here, specifically around uncertainty (they’re in the business of “predicting/quantifying/derisking uncertain futures/projects”). Two quick examples:
Micro Models—They use a gate/funnel pattern to assess uncertainty over time. e.g. Here’s a meta framework for startup lifecycle from the entrepreneurs perspective: https://d3ansictanv2wj.cloudfront.net/lean_0505-8a1e4251dd6cd9f28b38a2eb6354a1be.png. e.g. Here’s a surprisingly helpful grid with metrics for VCs to invest in SaaS startups: https://www.quora.com/What-are-average-revenues-MRR-or-ARR-for-SaaS-companies-at-the-time-of-the-Series-A/answer/Christoph-Janz?srid=zROG
Macro Models—They use macro models to predict how startups play into the context of future trends. e.g. The abstraction of trust — https://medium.com/@alexdanco/emergent-layers-an-introduction-f91c3cbe0175 or Aggregation Theory — https://stratechery.com/2015/aggregation-theory/.
I would expect an “EA-focused uncertainty model” to include gates that map a specific project through time given models of macro future trends.
One difference between for-profits and non-profits is that the worst case scenario for a for-profit is going out of business. The worst case for a non-profit is unintentionally causing harm. Someone mentioned that there aren’t a lot of historians in EA—I wonder if this is because the history of attempts to do good is discouraging.