Hmm, no. I wouldn’t want Vida Plena to update without evidence that they have those secondary effects.
But I think it would also be misleading to compare direct effects + household spillovers (in the case of Vida Plena) to direct effects + household spillovers + community spillovers + mortality reduction + consumption increases (GiveDirectly), unless you had good reason to believe that Vida Plena’s secondary effects are much worse than GiveDirectly’s. So I suppose I would be wary of saying that GiveDirectly now have 3–4x the WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—or even to say that GiveDirectly have any more WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—without having a good sense of how Vida Plena performs on those secondary outcomes. (But I feel like maybe I’m misunderstanding what you meant by applying a discount?)
So I suppose I would be wary of saying that GiveDirectly now have 3–4x the WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—or even to say that GiveDirectly have any more WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena
Ah right—yeah I’m not making either of these claims, I’m just saying that if the previous claim (from VP’s predictive CEA) was that: “Vida Plena...is 8 times more cost-effective than GiveDirectly”, and GD has since been updated to 3-4x more cost-effective than it was compared to the time the predictive CEA was published, we should discount the 8x claim downwards somewhat (but not necessarily by 3-4x).
Hmm, no. I wouldn’t want Vida Plena to update without evidence that they have those secondary effects.
But I think it would also be misleading to compare direct effects + household spillovers (in the case of Vida Plena) to direct effects + household spillovers + community spillovers + mortality reduction + consumption increases (GiveDirectly), unless you had good reason to believe that Vida Plena’s secondary effects are much worse than GiveDirectly’s. So I suppose I would be wary of saying that GiveDirectly now have 3–4x the WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—or even to say that GiveDirectly have any more WELLBY impact relative to Vida Plena—without having a good sense of how Vida Plena performs on those secondary outcomes. (But I feel like maybe I’m misunderstanding what you meant by applying a discount?)
Ah right—yeah I’m not making either of these claims, I’m just saying that if the previous claim (from VP’s predictive CEA) was that: “Vida Plena...is 8 times more cost-effective than GiveDirectly”, and GD has since been updated to 3-4x more cost-effective than it was compared to the time the predictive CEA was published, we should discount the 8x claim downwards somewhat (but not necessarily by 3-4x).