It seems like you are really zeroing in on nitpicky details that make barely any difference to the substance of what I said in order to accuse me of being intentionally deceptive. This is not a cool behaviour.
I am curious to see what will happen in 5 years when there is no AGI. How will people react? Will they just kick their timelines 5 years down the road and repeat the cycle? Will some people attempt to resolve the discomfort by defining AGI as whatever exists in 5 years? Will some people be disillusioned and furious?
I hope that some people engage in soul searching about why they believed AGI was imminent when it wasn’t. And near the top of the list of reasons why will be (I believe) intolerance of disagreement about AGI and hostility to criticism of short AGI timelines.
I don’t think it’s nitpicky at all. A trend showing small, increasing numbers, just above 0, is very different (qualitatively) to a trend that is all flat 0s, as Ben West points out.
I am curious to see what will happen in 5 years when there is no AGI.
If this happens, we will at least know a lot more about how AGI works (or doesn’t). I’ll be happy to admit I’m wrong (I mean, I’ll be happy to still be around, for a start[1]).
I think the most likely reason we won’t have AGI in 5 years is that there will be a global moratorium on further development. This is what I’m pushing for.
A trend showing small, increasing numbers, just above 0, is very different (qualitatively) to a trend that is all flat 0s
Then it’s a good thing I didn’t claim there was “a trend that is all flat 0s” in the comment you called “disingenuous”. I said:
It’s only with the o3-low and o1-pro models we see scores above 0% — but still below 5%. Getting above 0% on ARC-AGI-2 is an interesting result and getting much higher scores on the previous version of the benchmark, ARC-AGI, is an interesting result. There’s a nuanced discussion to be had about that topic.
This feels like such a small detail to focus on. It feels ridiculous.
It seems like you are really zeroing in on nitpicky details that make barely any difference to the substance of what I said in order to accuse me of being intentionally deceptive. This is not a cool behaviour.
I am curious to see what will happen in 5 years when there is no AGI. How will people react? Will they just kick their timelines 5 years down the road and repeat the cycle? Will some people attempt to resolve the discomfort by defining AGI as whatever exists in 5 years? Will some people be disillusioned and furious?
I hope that some people engage in soul searching about why they believed AGI was imminent when it wasn’t. And near the top of the list of reasons why will be (I believe) intolerance of disagreement about AGI and hostility to criticism of short AGI timelines.
I don’t think it’s nitpicky at all. A trend showing small, increasing numbers, just above 0, is very different (qualitatively) to a trend that is all flat 0s, as Ben West points out.
If this happens, we will at least know a lot more about how AGI works (or doesn’t). I’ll be happy to admit I’m wrong (I mean, I’ll be happy to still be around, for a start[1]).
I think the most likely reason we won’t have AGI in 5 years is that there will be a global moratorium on further development. This is what I’m pushing for.
Then it’s a good thing I didn’t claim there was “a trend that is all flat 0s” in the comment you called “disingenuous”. I said:
This feels like such a small detail to focus on. It feels ridiculous.