The other 10% is something like: “But sometimes adding time and care to how, when, and whether you say something can be a big deal. It could have real effects on the first impressions you, and the ideas and communities and memes you care about, make on people who (a) could have a lot to contribute on goals you care about; (b) are the sort of folks for whom first impressions matter.”
10% is maybe an average. I think it should be lower (5%?) for an early-career person who’s prioritizing exploration, experimentation and learning. I think it should be higher (20%?) for someone who’s in a high-stakes position, has a lot of people scrutinizing what they say, and would lose the opportunity to do a lot of valuable things if they substantially increased the time they spent clearing up misunderstandings.
I wish it could be 0% instead of 5-20%, and this emphatically includes what I wish for myself. I deeply wish I could constantly express myself in exploratory, incautious ways—including saying things colorfully and vividly, saying things I’m not even sure I believe, and generally ‘trying on’ all kinds of ideas and messages. This is my natural way of being; but I feel like I’ve got pretty unambiguous reasons to think it’s a bad idea.
If you want to defend 0%, can you give me something here beyond your intuition? The stakes are high (and I think “Heuristics are almost never >90% right” is a pretty good prior).
My take is about 90% in agreement with this.
The other 10% is something like: “But sometimes adding time and care to how, when, and whether you say something can be a big deal. It could have real effects on the first impressions you, and the ideas and communities and memes you care about, make on people who (a) could have a lot to contribute on goals you care about; (b) are the sort of folks for whom first impressions matter.”
10% is maybe an average. I think it should be lower (5%?) for an early-career person who’s prioritizing exploration, experimentation and learning. I think it should be higher (20%?) for someone who’s in a high-stakes position, has a lot of people scrutinizing what they say, and would lose the opportunity to do a lot of valuable things if they substantially increased the time they spent clearing up misunderstandings.
I wish it could be 0% instead of 5-20%, and this emphatically includes what I wish for myself. I deeply wish I could constantly express myself in exploratory, incautious ways—including saying things colorfully and vividly, saying things I’m not even sure I believe, and generally ‘trying on’ all kinds of ideas and messages. This is my natural way of being; but I feel like I’ve got pretty unambiguous reasons to think it’s a bad idea.
If you want to defend 0%, can you give me something here beyond your intuition? The stakes are high (and I think “Heuristics are almost never >90% right” is a pretty good prior).