Thanks for the update. I think the rest of the calculations and parameters look about right actually (I didn’t look at all the other sources, but the ones you use as defaults in the spreadsheet look reasonable at least). And I was doing an independent estimate that came to about the same ballpark as what I get using your spreadsheet with the corrected Samotsvety figures. So I think the post basically still holds up except that the numbers shift more in favor of AI safety work if you use the Samotsvety x-risk estimates—and the original parameters still serve as a conservative estimate.
Thanks for the update. I think the rest of the calculations and parameters look about right actually (I didn’t look at all the other sources, but the ones you use as defaults in the spreadsheet look reasonable at least). And I was doing an independent estimate that came to about the same ballpark as what I get using your spreadsheet with the corrected Samotsvety figures. So I think the post basically still holds up except that the numbers shift more in favor of AI safety work if you use the Samotsvety x-risk estimates—and the original parameters still serve as a conservative estimate.