The prediction āit is only a matter of timeā has an effect on how to allocate EA resources depending on how long that matter of time is, even with additional resources going towards it, so Iād be curious what time period youād assign for this and how you came to think that.
Even without having to construct brains, eyes, ears, tails, feathers, Humbird thinks it will still be very expensive at the moment since creating the immune system is so hard to create- so you need pharma grade standards with are expensive (one can disagree with this assumption or think eventually it wonāt be true, as CE Delft do, but Iād be interested in clearer reasoning as to why one thinks itās likely)
Iām not sure why you assume the production unit for animal-based meat consumes 50% of resources for its construction (growth)?
Concerning āit is a matter of timeā: the only worry that I see, is that it would take so long to develop cultivated meat that in the meantime we would have already abolished animal farming (or decreased it to such a degree that cultivated meat has little additional value) because of e.g. plant-based and fermentation-based protein. But I consider that unlikely (lower than 10% likelihood). Oh, and even if humans would be all plant-based vegans by then, then we still have the many carnivorous animals (pets,...) who may benefit from cultivated meat. Hence, I think speeding up cultivated meat R&D remains very effective (high risk high impact), especially for animal welfare. It may be less effective for e.g. climate change, because reductions of greenhouse gas emissions need to occur soon (within 30 years). But cultivated meat offers a cheap carbon capture and storage method (reforestation of agricultural land that was used for livestock). And I think carbon capture is still worthwhile even over 50 years.
I would say 30-50 years for whole tissue cultivated meat to reach price parity with animal-based meat. But I have no clue whether Iām good at forecasting.
About the 50% consumption of resources: that was just an assumption, somewhere between 0 and 100%, close to what I think is the proportion of edible tissue mass to whole body mass.
Thanks for sharing your perspective.
The prediction āit is only a matter of timeā has an effect on how to allocate EA resources depending on how long that matter of time is, even with additional resources going towards it, so Iād be curious what time period youād assign for this and how you came to think that.
Even without having to construct brains, eyes, ears, tails, feathers, Humbird thinks it will still be very expensive at the moment since creating the immune system is so hard to create- so you need pharma grade standards with are expensive (one can disagree with this assumption or think eventually it wonāt be true, as CE Delft do, but Iād be interested in clearer reasoning as to why one thinks itās likely)
Iām not sure why you assume the production unit for animal-based meat consumes 50% of resources for its construction (growth)?
Concerning āit is a matter of timeā: the only worry that I see, is that it would take so long to develop cultivated meat that in the meantime we would have already abolished animal farming (or decreased it to such a degree that cultivated meat has little additional value) because of e.g. plant-based and fermentation-based protein. But I consider that unlikely (lower than 10% likelihood). Oh, and even if humans would be all plant-based vegans by then, then we still have the many carnivorous animals (pets,...) who may benefit from cultivated meat. Hence, I think speeding up cultivated meat R&D remains very effective (high risk high impact), especially for animal welfare. It may be less effective for e.g. climate change, because reductions of greenhouse gas emissions need to occur soon (within 30 years). But cultivated meat offers a cheap carbon capture and storage method (reforestation of agricultural land that was used for livestock). And I think carbon capture is still worthwhile even over 50 years.
I would say 30-50 years for whole tissue cultivated meat to reach price parity with animal-based meat. But I have no clue whether Iām good at forecasting.
About the 50% consumption of resources: that was just an assumption, somewhere between 0 and 100%, close to what I think is the proportion of edible tissue mass to whole body mass.