Nitpick. ”/” at the end has to be removed for the link to work.
6.5 billion egg-laying hens are in cages each year globally
This implies 23.0 % (= 1 − 6.5*10^9/(8.44*10^9)) of all laying hens outside cages assuming 8.44 billion laying hens as reported by FAO. I believe this fraction is too high. How did you get the 6.5 billion laying hens in cages globally? Do you think there are more than 8.44 billion laying hens globally?
any way you cut it it [broilers in cages] is a very major problem
Thank you for your response, Vasco, and appreciate the attention!
23% is a roughly accurate percentage of laying hens outside of cages globally. Numerically, this would be ~2 billion hens outside of cages. Factors that build to that number include the sizable proportion of modern cage-free production in the US, Europe, and a few smaller by volume regions (ex Oceania); sizable cage-free production in India; a large number of cage-free hens in China, even though the percentage of overall production is only ~10%; and, most importantly, in a number of countries in Asia (including major egg producing ones like Indonesia and Bangladesh) and most countries in Africa, a sizeable portion of egg production being cage-free because it is small backyard/local production that is free-range or similar.
For what it’s worth, we are not trying to make a precise numeric calculation here, just give a sense of the size of the issue of caged confinement of poultry in China. That ratio of 2x or 1.6x (depending on how you calculate it) would go down if you estimate a lower percentage of global egg production is cage-free, but it would go up if we factor in say ducks raised for meat in China, of which approximately 2 billion are also raised in similar cage systems each year and for which the same logic and opportunity described above also applies.. That ratio would also go up if we project current trends and commitments forward several years (factoring in the trend toward cage-free systems in some markets and the continued shift to caged confinement of broilers in China). Depending on which of these things we do or don’t factor in here, maybe you get 1.3x on the lowest end or 2.5x on the high end. 2x is a very loose average.
But regardless of the specific assumptions and whether that leads to 1.3x or 2.5x more birds in cages in China for meat than birds in cages for eggs globally, it probably doesn’t really matter in terms of the general purpose of the post.
But regardless of the specific assumptions and whether that leads to 1.3x or 2.5x more birds in cages in China for meat than birds in cages for eggs globally, it probably doesn’t really matter in terms of the general purpose of the post.
Thanks for the follow-up, Whitney! I strongly upvoted it.
I have shared the estimates you provided with one person from the FAO.
Nitpick. ”/” at the end has to be removed for the link to work.
This implies 23.0 % (= 1 − 6.5*10^9/(8.44*10^9)) of all laying hens outside cages assuming 8.44 billion laying hens as reported by FAO. I believe this fraction is too high. How did you get the 6.5 billion laying hens in cages globally? Do you think there are more than 8.44 billion laying hens globally?
Makes sense!
Thank you for your response, Vasco, and appreciate the attention!
23% is a roughly accurate percentage of laying hens outside of cages globally. Numerically, this would be ~2 billion hens outside of cages. Factors that build to that number include the sizable proportion of modern cage-free production in the US, Europe, and a few smaller by volume regions (ex Oceania); sizable cage-free production in India; a large number of cage-free hens in China, even though the percentage of overall production is only ~10%; and, most importantly, in a number of countries in Asia (including major egg producing ones like Indonesia and Bangladesh) and most countries in Africa, a sizeable portion of egg production being cage-free because it is small backyard/local production that is free-range or similar.
For what it’s worth, we are not trying to make a precise numeric calculation here, just give a sense of the size of the issue of caged confinement of poultry in China. That ratio of 2x or 1.6x (depending on how you calculate it) would go down if you estimate a lower percentage of global egg production is cage-free, but it would go up if we factor in say ducks raised for meat in China, of which approximately 2 billion are also raised in similar cage systems each year and for which the same logic and opportunity described above also applies.. That ratio would also go up if we project current trends and commitments forward several years (factoring in the trend toward cage-free systems in some markets and the continued shift to caged confinement of broilers in China). Depending on which of these things we do or don’t factor in here, maybe you get 1.3x on the lowest end or 2.5x on the high end. 2x is a very loose average.
But regardless of the specific assumptions and whether that leads to 1.3x or 2.5x more birds in cages in China for meat than birds in cages for eggs globally, it probably doesn’t really matter in terms of the general purpose of the post.
Thanks for the additional context!
Agreed.