Hi Huwelium, thanks so much for your post! I’m also advising someone on highly cost-effective interventions, so I found your thoughtful analysis to be very interesting. My question relates to your cost effectiveness estimates vs GiveWell’s. Based on GiveWell’s spreadsheet, their modeling of DDK (2017) places that program’s cost effectiveness at 0.5x – 2.5x GiveDirectly’s. Their modeling of Bettinger et al (2017) places that program’s at 0.2x – 1.4x GiveDirectly’s. Both of these estimates are for consumption effects only and excludes non-pecuniary benefits like reduced teenage pregnancy. This seems most comparable with your document’s cost-effectiveness estimates, which are based on income effects only. However, for Pratham, you conclude its cost effectiveness is 20x − 200x GiveDirectly’s.
I’m having trouble undertanding how your estimates are one to two orders of magnitude different from GiveWell’s. I’m probably missing something important so I was wondering if you’ve attempted a reconciliation. Any clarification on assumption differences and their relative importance would be very much appreciated. Thanks so much!
Thanks for your post. I would love to get in touch and compare notes on research for advising donors. I’ll try to reach you via this site’s messaging.
Sorry for the very late reply (I don’t get alerts when someone posts here). I believe the difference comes simply from the wide range of cost effectiveness of education interventions. As mentioned in the Google doc, “Rachel Glennerster mentions in an 80000 Hours podcast that good interventions typically deliver at least 1 learning adjusted year of schooling (LAYS) per 100 USD spent, with some interventions delivering about 10-30 LAYS per 100 USD, and the best delivering up to 460 LAYS per 100 USD.”
For Pratham, the info I found suggested roughly 1.7 to 27.6 extra years per 100 USD. Assuming an increase in income of 8.8% for each extra year of schooling, this means an increase in income of about 15% to 243% per 100 USD donated. Comparing to DDK 2017, GiveWell cites a 24% increase in income for 541$ spent, so 4.4% increase in income per 100$ spent.
I don’t know if this helps? I think the basic explanation is that there is a very wide range in effectiveness of education interventions, and that Pratham seems to be higher in this range than DDK, say.
Hi Huwelium, thanks so much for your post! I’m also advising someone on highly cost-effective interventions, so I found your thoughtful analysis to be very interesting. My question relates to your cost effectiveness estimates vs GiveWell’s. Based on GiveWell’s spreadsheet, their modeling of DDK (2017) places that program’s cost effectiveness at 0.5x – 2.5x GiveDirectly’s. Their modeling of Bettinger et al (2017) places that program’s at 0.2x – 1.4x GiveDirectly’s. Both of these estimates are for consumption effects only and excludes non-pecuniary benefits like reduced teenage pregnancy. This seems most comparable with your document’s cost-effectiveness estimates, which are based on income effects only. However, for Pratham, you conclude its cost effectiveness is 20x − 200x GiveDirectly’s.
I’m having trouble undertanding how your estimates are one to two orders of magnitude different from GiveWell’s. I’m probably missing something important so I was wondering if you’ve attempted a reconciliation. Any clarification on assumption differences and their relative importance would be very much appreciated. Thanks so much!
Hi Wayne,
Thanks for your post. I would love to get in touch and compare notes on research for advising donors. I’ll try to reach you via this site’s messaging.
Sorry for the very late reply (I don’t get alerts when someone posts here). I believe the difference comes simply from the wide range of cost effectiveness of education interventions. As mentioned in the Google doc, “Rachel Glennerster mentions in an 80000 Hours podcast that good interventions typically deliver at least 1 learning adjusted year of schooling (LAYS) per 100 USD spent, with some interventions delivering about 10-30 LAYS per 100 USD, and the best delivering up to 460 LAYS per 100 USD.”
For Pratham, the info I found suggested roughly 1.7 to 27.6 extra years per 100 USD. Assuming an increase in income of 8.8% for each extra year of schooling, this means an increase in income of about 15% to 243% per 100 USD donated. Comparing to DDK 2017, GiveWell cites a 24% increase in income for 541$ spent, so 4.4% increase in income per 100$ spent.
I don’t know if this helps? I think the basic explanation is that there is a very wide range in effectiveness of education interventions, and that Pratham seems to be higher in this range than DDK, say.