I’ll start off with a couple of predictions — all of these are very quick attempts (so not very resilient):
Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia — 85% (I made a quick base rate from taking a quick look at comparable regimes in this data, then also wanted to add the current chaos as an input & looked at this Metaculus question) (as mentioned above, I don’t think this is resilient!)[1]
Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? — 50%
WHO declares a new Global Health Emergency in 2023 —20% (extremely rough; had estimated (probably poorly) for pandemics, multiplied by a rough multiple, don’t have time to do any checks)
In case anyone’s interested, base rates seemed to give 0.94 chances of him remaining president for another year, 0.89 for another 2, 0.85 for three, 0.83 for four, and 0.81 for five. And here’s the Metaculus question:
Great, thanks! Really appreciate this; I was really off — I think I had quickly taken my number/base rate for pandemics, and referenced a list of PHEICs I thought was for the 21st century without checking or noticing that this only starts in 2007. I might just go for this base rate, then.
Misha beat me to it RE: PHEIC base rates, but I’d also be interested in the 50% figure for cultured meat, given FDA approval last month for UPSIDE Foods (formally Memphis Meats). How much of the 50% figure is driven by pending USDA approval, VS time to market VS the $30 figure?
I was thinking very loosely about both, without doing any proper homework. I had the sense that USDA approval would take a while (for a sense of how loosely I approached this: I didn’t remember which of FDA or USDA had already approved this), and was under the vague impression (from a conversation?) that this wouldn’t go straight to stores or chains, but would instead go to fancy restaurants first (just now confirmed that the restaurant listed here is very high-end). But then again, I vaguely expected ~full-enough approval in 2023, and I felt like “available for $30” could happen in lots of ways (e.g. there’s some “tasting” option that’s tiny and therefore decently cheap), etc. So I went with 50% without thinking much longer about it.
I went and checked just now, however, and am seeing this article (Nov 16), which notes
Upside has previously said “end of 2022” as a launch date for its cultivated chicken. The company must still secure approvals from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) before it can actually sell to consumers. In a statement Upside promised more details on timing and launch to follow.
The link is to an article from April, and although companies might be over-optimistic and might over-promise, I guess that means that this timeline is vaguely feasible, which pushes me towards thinking that I should be more optimistic.
Also, I just checked Metaculus, and it appears that in April, ~forecasters thought that there’s a roughly 19% chance that cultured meat might be available for sale in the US by the end of 2022 (community prediction was 37%), which seems wild, but again, makes me think that I was more pessimistic than necessary before:
“Oversee initial cell collection and the development and maintenance of qualified cell banks, including by issuing regulations or guidance and conducting inspections, as appropriate.”
&
“Oversee proliferation and differentiation of cells through the time of harvest, including by issuing regulations or guidance and conducting inspections, as appropriate.”
After that, it looks to me like there’s another phase of regulatory steps that’s centered more in the US Department of Agriculture.
I’ll start off with a couple of predictions — all of these are very quick attempts (so not very resilient):
Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia — 85% (I made a quick base rate from taking a quick look at comparable regimes in this data, then also wanted to add the current chaos as an input & looked at this Metaculus question) (as mentioned above, I don’t think this is resilient!)[1]
Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? — 50%
WHO declares a new Global Health Emergency in 2023 —20% (extremely rough; had estimated (probably poorly) for pandemics, multiplied by a rough multiple, don’t have time to do any checks)
In case anyone’s interested, base rates seemed to give 0.94 chances of him remaining president for another year, 0.89 for another 2, 0.85 for three, 0.83 for four, and 0.81 for five. And here’s the Metaculus question:
If Global Health Emergency is meant to mean public health emergency of international concern , then the base rate is roughly 45% = 7 / 15.5: declared 7 times, while the appropriate regulation come into force in mid-2007.
Great, thanks! Really appreciate this; I was really off — I think I had quickly taken my number/base rate for pandemics, and referenced a list of PHEICs I thought was for the 21st century without checking or noticing that this only starts in 2007. I might just go for this base rate, then.
Hey, thanks for starting this!
Misha beat me to it RE: PHEIC base rates, but I’d also be interested in the 50% figure for cultured meat, given FDA approval last month for UPSIDE Foods (formally Memphis Meats). How much of the 50% figure is driven by pending USDA approval, VS time to market VS the $30 figure?
I was thinking very loosely about both, without doing any proper homework. I had the sense that USDA approval would take a while (for a sense of how loosely I approached this: I didn’t remember which of FDA or USDA had already approved this), and was under the vague impression (from a conversation?) that this wouldn’t go straight to stores or chains, but would instead go to fancy restaurants first (just now confirmed that the restaurant listed here is very high-end). But then again, I vaguely expected ~full-enough approval in 2023, and I felt like “available for $30” could happen in lots of ways (e.g. there’s some “tasting” option that’s tiny and therefore decently cheap), etc. So I went with 50% without thinking much longer about it.
I went and checked just now, however, and am seeing this article (Nov 16), which notes
The link is to an article from April, and although companies might be over-optimistic and might over-promise, I guess that means that this timeline is vaguely feasible, which pushes me towards thinking that I should be more optimistic.
Also, I just checked Metaculus, and it appears that in April, ~forecasters thought that there’s a roughly 19% chance that cultured meat might be available for sale in the US by the end of 2022 (community prediction was 37%), which seems wild, but again, makes me think that I was more pessimistic than necessary before:
Oh, I’m looking through other Metaculus questions, and here’s another relevant one: Will [the US] approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023?
Community Prediction 52%
The comments are quite interesting, and imply that Upside Foods don’t have enough meat to “sell soon” and also