FWIW I don’t use “theory of victory” to refer to 95th+ percentile outcomes (plus a theory of how we could plausibly have ended up there). I use it to refer to outcomes where we “succeed / achieve victory,” whether I think that represents the top 5% of outcomes or the top 20% or whatever. So e.g. my theory of victory for climate change would include more likely outcomes than my theory of victory for AI does, because I think succeeding re: AI is less likely.
FWIW I don’t use “theory of victory” to refer to 95th+ percentile outcomes (plus a theory of how we could plausibly have ended up there). I use it to refer to outcomes where we “succeed / achieve victory,” whether I think that represents the top 5% of outcomes or the top 20% or whatever. So e.g. my theory of victory for climate change would include more likely outcomes than my theory of victory for AI does, because I think succeeding re: AI is less likely.
Thanks for the clarification! I’ve edited the post to reflect your feedback.