Would it then make sense to call the people who found it to be very positive “nuclear-ists”? What about those who found it to be just a bit better than 0 in expectation? Should all these people be thought of as a coherent movement and thought group? Should they meet and coalesce around the fact that their results found that Nuclear>0 ?
Yes, I agree. I think longtermism is a step backwards from the original EA framework of importance/tractability/crowdedness, where we allocate resources to the interventions with the highest expected value. If those happen to be aimed at future generations, great. But we’re going to have a portfolio of interventions, and the ‘best’ intervention (which optimally receives the marginal funding dollar) will change as increased funding decreases marginal returns.
Yes, I agree. I think longtermism is a step backwards from the original EA framework of importance/tractability/crowdedness, where we allocate resources to the interventions with the highest expected value. If those happen to be aimed at future generations, great. But we’re going to have a portfolio of interventions, and the ‘best’ intervention (which optimally receives the marginal funding dollar) will change as increased funding decreases marginal returns.