I think assuming that this is purely based on optics is unwarranted. Like I argued at the time, talk of ‘optics’ is kind of insulting to the everyperson, carrying the implication that the irrational public will misunderstand the +EV of such a decision. Whereas I contend that there’s a perfectly rational Bayesian update that people should do towards an organisation being poorly run or even corrupt when that org spends large sums of money on vanity projects which they justify with a vague claim about having done some CBA that they don’t want to share.
Meanwhile, there’s no guarantee EA will have fresh billionaires any time soon, so even if it takes a couple of years to sell, it might be worth it, given that it a) there are alternative far cheaper-to-run venues like Lightcone and CEEALAR, and b) just recouping the sticker price would fund multiple cash-strapped EA orgs for several years.
To be clear, what I am criticizing here is not operating the venue while the sale is going on, or setting some kind of target for the operators in terms of quality-adjusted-events or estimates of counterfactual events caused, that would allow them to continue operating the venue.
I totally agree that observing someone spending money on a “vanity project” would be evidence that they are poorly run or corrupt, but like, Wytham would not be a vanity project if it were to make economic sense for EV or the EA community at large to operate. So whether a project is a vanity project is dependent on a cost-effectiveness analysis (which I don’t think really has occurred in this case).
I think assuming that this is purely based on optics is unwarranted. Like I argued at the time, talk of ‘optics’ is kind of insulting to the everyperson, carrying the implication that the irrational public will misunderstand the +EV of such a decision. Whereas I contend that there’s a perfectly rational Bayesian update that people should do towards an organisation being poorly run or even corrupt when that org spends large sums of money on vanity projects which they justify with a vague claim about having done some CBA that they don’t want to share.
Meanwhile, there’s no guarantee EA will have fresh billionaires any time soon, so even if it takes a couple of years to sell, it might be worth it, given that it a) there are alternative far cheaper-to-run venues like Lightcone and CEEALAR, and b) just recouping the sticker price would fund multiple cash-strapped EA orgs for several years.
To be clear, what I am criticizing here is not operating the venue while the sale is going on, or setting some kind of target for the operators in terms of quality-adjusted-events or estimates of counterfactual events caused, that would allow them to continue operating the venue.
I totally agree that observing someone spending money on a “vanity project” would be evidence that they are poorly run or corrupt, but like, Wytham would not be a vanity project if it were to make economic sense for EV or the EA community at large to operate. So whether a project is a vanity project is dependent on a cost-effectiveness analysis (which I don’t think really has occurred in this case).
I really did not get this from
and suggest editing it into the original comment.
Yeah, that’s fair. I’ll edit it in.