Metaculus currently says 7% (for one definition of “transformative”).
But I chose five years more because it’s hard for me to predict things further in the future, rather than because most of my probability mass is in the <5 year range.
Metaculus currently says 7% (for one definition of “transformative”).
But I chose five years more because it’s hard for me to predict things further in the future, rather than because most of my probability mass is in the <5 year range.