Peter—I have mixed feelings about your advice, which is well-expressed and reasonable.
I agree that, typically, it’s prudent not to get caught up in news stories that involve high uncertainty, many rumors, and unclear long-term impact.
However, a crucial issue for the EA movement is whether there will be a big public relations blowback against EA from the FTX difficulties. If there’s significant risk of this blowback, EA leadership better develop a pro-active plan for dealing with the PR crisis—and quick.
The FTX crisis is a Very Big Deal in crypto—one of the worst crises ever. Worldwide, about 300 million people own crypto. Most of them have seen dramatic losses in the value of their tokens recently. On paper, at least, they have lost a couple of hundred billion dollars in the last couple of days. Most investors are down at least 20% this week because of this crisis. Even if prices recover, we will never forget how massive this drop has been.
Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) himself has allegedly lost about 94% of his net worth this week, down from $15 billion to under $1 billion. (I don’t give much credence to these estimates, but it’s pretty clear the losses have been very large).
Millions of crypto investors are furious. They blame the FTX leadership, especially SBF. And some of them are blaming FTX’s difficulties on SBF’s utilitarianism, e.g. tweeting things like ‘never trust a utilitarian with your money’.
This could all blow over. The financial contagion from FTX might be contained. Crypto prices might recover soon. Binance dominating the crypto exchange space might become the new normal. Other billionaires might step up to fill any funding gap (once the asset markets recover in a year, or two, or five).
But I think it would be prudent for EA leadership to treat this FTX crisis as a potentially serious PR crisis for EA—and not just a massive financial crisis for EA funding. SBF’s close association with EA creates some potential PR risk for the EA movement, especially among crypto investors.
It all depends on how mainstream media spins the FTX story. The next couple of weeks will be critical. If crypto news, financial news, and/or mainstream news starts blaming SBF personally for these difficulties, or uncovers evidence of financial wrong-doing, or links the FTX crisis someone to utilitarian moral reasoning and/or EA, that could be really bad for our movement.
I have no idea what the optimal PR response would be. I’m not a PR expert. But PR crisis management experts do exist, and I would strongly urge EA leadership to consult some of them. Soon.
This FTX crisis might not be an existential risk to EA, but it might be a global catastrophic risk at both the financial and the public relations levels. And we have learned to take GCRs seriously, haven’t we?
PS let me be clear: I have a lot of respect for SBF; I don’t have any real idea what happened with FTX; I’m not assigning any blame; and I hope the crisis can be resolved with minimal damage to investors and the crypto industry.
If there’s significant risk of this blowback, EA leadership better develop a pro-active plan for dealing with the PR crisis—and quick.
I think it would be prudent for EA leadership to treat this FTX crisis as a potentially serious PR crisis for EA—and not just a massive financial crisis for EA funding.
I’ve been talking to key people a fair bit since yesterday, broadly pushing the line and level of concern that you suggest. My current take is that the “pro-active plan” work is happening quickly and with appropriate investment.
Peter—I have mixed feelings about your advice, which is well-expressed and reasonable.
I agree that, typically, it’s prudent not to get caught up in news stories that involve high uncertainty, many rumors, and unclear long-term impact.
However, a crucial issue for the EA movement is whether there will be a big public relations blowback against EA from the FTX difficulties. If there’s significant risk of this blowback, EA leadership better develop a pro-active plan for dealing with the PR crisis—and quick.
The FTX crisis is a Very Big Deal in crypto—one of the worst crises ever. Worldwide, about 300 million people own crypto. Most of them have seen dramatic losses in the value of their tokens recently. On paper, at least, they have lost a couple of hundred billion dollars in the last couple of days. Most investors are down at least 20% this week because of this crisis. Even if prices recover, we will never forget how massive this drop has been.
Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) himself has allegedly lost about 94% of his net worth this week, down from $15 billion to under $1 billion. (I don’t give much credence to these estimates, but it’s pretty clear the losses have been very large).
Millions of crypto investors are furious. They blame the FTX leadership, especially SBF. And some of them are blaming FTX’s difficulties on SBF’s utilitarianism, e.g. tweeting things like ‘never trust a utilitarian with your money’.
This could all blow over. The financial contagion from FTX might be contained. Crypto prices might recover soon. Binance dominating the crypto exchange space might become the new normal. Other billionaires might step up to fill any funding gap (once the asset markets recover in a year, or two, or five).
But I think it would be prudent for EA leadership to treat this FTX crisis as a potentially serious PR crisis for EA—and not just a massive financial crisis for EA funding. SBF’s close association with EA creates some potential PR risk for the EA movement, especially among crypto investors.
It all depends on how mainstream media spins the FTX story. The next couple of weeks will be critical. If crypto news, financial news, and/or mainstream news starts blaming SBF personally for these difficulties, or uncovers evidence of financial wrong-doing, or links the FTX crisis someone to utilitarian moral reasoning and/or EA, that could be really bad for our movement.
I have no idea what the optimal PR response would be. I’m not a PR expert. But PR crisis management experts do exist, and I would strongly urge EA leadership to consult some of them. Soon.
This FTX crisis might not be an existential risk to EA, but it might be a global catastrophic risk at both the financial and the public relations levels. And we have learned to take GCRs seriously, haven’t we?
PS let me be clear: I have a lot of respect for SBF; I don’t have any real idea what happened with FTX; I’m not assigning any blame; and I hope the crisis can be resolved with minimal damage to investors and the crypto industry.
I’ve been talking to key people a fair bit since yesterday, broadly pushing the line and level of concern that you suggest. My current take is that the “pro-active plan” work is happening quickly and with appropriate investment.
Peter—thanks very much for your quick reply. That’s reassuring to hear!
Vitalik EA takeaway thread