It’s way too early to know with confidence, but at a first pass GV/OpenPhil is down to $5.2B (90% of $5.8B), and FTX team down to maybe double Sam’s estimated 1B? Other EA crypto donors also down to maybe sub-$1B? So the total wealth could be down by about 70%. But it’s also possible there have been gains that partially offset the losses.
Though I don’t believe the Forbes figure for Dustin – it seems to assume that most of his wealth comes from his meta stake, and he’s said on Twitter that he’d sold a lot of his stake (and hopefully invested in stuff that’s gone up). Last spring, Open Phil also said their assets were down 40% when Meta was down 60%, which could suggest Meta was about half of the assets at that point. So I expect it’s too low.
Also seems like there might be some new donors in the last year.
Probably that loss is dampened then. Although worth noting that Dustin’s Asana is also down 75% since July ’21 when you wrote that post. (It was down ~55% from July ‘21 to Spring ’22.)
Update: Dustin says that the bloomberg estimate ($11.3B) is about right, if you add on an extra $3B of foundation assets, so community wealth would be down more like 55%, not 70%.
Might be time to update the “funds committed” table in this blog post: https://80000hours.org/2021/07/effective-altruism-growing/#how-many-funds-are-committed-to-effective-altruism
Meta is also down a lot (ergo Dustin ergo Open Phil)
It’s way too early to know with confidence, but at a first pass GV/OpenPhil is down to $5.2B (90% of $5.8B), and FTX team down to maybe double Sam’s estimated 1B? Other EA crypto donors also down to maybe sub-$1B? So the total wealth could be down by about 70%. But it’s also possible there have been gains that partially offset the losses.
Something like that seems right.
Though I don’t believe the Forbes figure for Dustin – it seems to assume that most of his wealth comes from his meta stake, and he’s said on Twitter that he’d sold a lot of his stake (and hopefully invested in stuff that’s gone up). Last spring, Open Phil also said their assets were down 40% when Meta was down 60%, which could suggest Meta was about half of the assets at that point. So I expect it’s too low.
Also seems like there might be some new donors in the last year.
Probably that loss is dampened then. Although worth noting that Dustin’s Asana is also down 75% since July ’21 when you wrote that post. (It was down ~55% from July ‘21 to Spring ’22.)
Yes, maybe we should model it as 10bn meta and 10bn other stuff, now worth 2.5bn and 7bn.
Update: Dustin says that the bloomberg estimate ($11.3B) is about right, if you add on an extra $3B of foundation assets, so community wealth would be down more like 55%, not 70%.