Maybe we disagree on just how big FTX’s financial hole is? Could we bet on “as of today, FTX liabilities—FTX liabilites >= 4bn”? I’d go positive on that one.
It’s hard to say, 4B is the ask but 8B was mentioned as a figure too. They could mean the ability to deploy some latent funds in some complex way. Honestly, this doesn’t seem that meaningful.
Dunno… Really can’t tell what you believe. You commented that folks are being too negative yet seem to also think that FTX “gambled” user deposits, which sounds pretty negative to me (though we can disagree about whether it was good to have done this). Oh wellz.
The crux here is what “collateralization” or “gambling”.
Boiled down, I believe that you can’t absolutely prevent all failures, not even real brokerages can.
Instead, you have a sliding scale of risk that has probabilities of failure, and none of these are truly zero risk unless you basically not have a business at all. Given this, it’s not clear to me that a failure indicates “gambling”.
A major consideration is that the norms of crypto are insane—like actually hard to communicate to normal people and sound normal. FTX’s main business is basically clients trading leveraged sh*t coins, which is absolutely crazy for 99.9% of people. Collateralizing with FTT was the issue, but it’s unclear if the current exchanges would survive a similar run on their tokens—should they shut down now? Are their CEOs guilty now?
People literally believed Tether might unpeg several in the last year, which is crazy, like thinking the USD might crash. It’s still a mystery how the main fiat instrument in crypto has value.
As I type this, I think people think USDD is literally unpegging?
So hanging this on one person’s neck is pretty unfair if he just pushed the “risk slider” a bit farther than other people, in this surreal space, where “NFTs” were a primary product. There’s other issues that undermined him that aren’t his fault, but explaining this to EAs would just make everyone sad.
If that sounds like mumbo jumbo and insanity with extra steps, well it might be, but is actually how sort of how capitalism and finance actually work. This literally happened with Bear Sterns and caused the 2008 crash.
To “resolve” the above, and what is “true”, I think what is used here is “social constructionism”, like Foucault, as opposed to the “rationalist” “positivist” view.
Relevant to our bet, as I mentioned, I’m not sure how this is resolved or communicated by me or you winning money in a bet. Also, I’m pretty sure that the social/political/legal things are going to drive this far more than the actual “crime” or “not crime”. I’m sort of worried but I’ll go through with it.
What I think: I think that FTX was insolvent such that even if FTT price was steady, user funds were not fully backed. That is, they literally bet the money on a speculative investment and lost it, and this caused a multibillion dollar financial hole. It is also possible that some or all of the assets—liabilities deficit was caused by a hack that happened months ago that they did not report.
As far as I can tell, you don’t think this. Well, if you really don’t think that, and it turns out you were wrong, then I’d like you to update. I think probabilities are a good way to enforce that, that is my actual good-faith belief. Of course I’m also always looking for profitable trades.
Is there any bet you’d take, that doesn’t rely on a legal system (which I agree adds a lot of confounders, not to mention delay), on the above claim? Could we bet on “By April 2023, evidence arises that FTX user funds were not even 95% backed before Binance’s FTT selloff?” Or maybe we could bet on Nuno’s belief on the backing?
BTW your chart is USDD not USDC. Idk what USDD is.
Also I’ve now spent like wayyy too much time chatting about this on here. Making a bet would involve further chatting. So FYI the most likely outcome is that I wake up tomorrow and pretend it was all just a dream. Sorry to disappoint and thanks for indulging me a bit in the end.
What I think: I think that FTX was insolvent such that even if FTT price was steady, user funds were not fully backed.
Yes you are right, I disagree. I think this collapse happened because of the FTT “attack” (or honestly, huge vulnerability) and Alameda was forced to defend. Without this depletion, SBF or FTX could cover these funds in a routine sense and we wouldn’t hear about this.
That is, they literally bet the money on a speculative investment and lost it, and this caused a multibillion dollar financial hole. It is also possible that some or all of the assets—liabilities deficit was caused by a hack that happened months ago that they did not report.
This was very crisp and helpful, yes, you are correct, we definitely disagree here, I don’t think there was a major gaping hole like a major speculation or hack that was being concealed.
Thank you for thinking about this! I agree with this bet! With the addition that includes any major selloff/attack on FTT (it’s possible Binance actually was in the minority of sales on this week’s events). I will accept this bet very happily at 50⁄50 that no such evidence will merge that is substantiated (e.g. not a rumor).
(This can still be hard to operationalize, because the forensics or seeing what happened can be difficult, especially if FTX is restructured in some way. E.g., it could have happened but we don’t hear about it. This is to your disadvantage.)
So FYI the most likely outcome is that I wake up tomorrow and pretend it was all just a dream. Sorry to disappoint and thanks for indulging me a bit in the end.
I will only accept bets on escrow, so we’re both clear that it’s active. I will honor any bets discussed, if you want, and you can leave it or not mention it again, if you don’t want to take them.
You are extremely thoughtful and helpful. Have a good night! Thank you and sorry again.