Executive summary: The impact of AI on cognitive labor will depend on whether AI enhances productivity or automates jobs, and whether demand for the outputs is elastic enough to increase the quantity of labor.
Key points:
Four historical analogies illustrate possible futures for cognitive labor in the face of AI: the printing press (productivity enhancement, elastic demand), mechanized farming (productivity enhancement, inelastic demand), computers (job automation, new replacement industry), and the ice trade (job automation, no replacement industry).
For writing and research, the most optimistic scenario is akin to the printing press, where AI enables higher quality content and increased demand offsets productivity gains, supporting more writers and researchers.
If demand for high-quality content is inelastic, writing and research may become more like mechanized farming, with a smaller number of people using AI to meet the world’s demand.
Programming and paralegal work may face job automation, but the demand for software products seems elastic enough to avoid the fate of the ice trade.
The impact of AI on cognitive labor depends not only on whether it enhances productivity or automates jobs, but also on the elasticity of demand for the outputs.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: The impact of AI on cognitive labor will depend on whether AI enhances productivity or automates jobs, and whether demand for the outputs is elastic enough to increase the quantity of labor.
Key points:
Four historical analogies illustrate possible futures for cognitive labor in the face of AI: the printing press (productivity enhancement, elastic demand), mechanized farming (productivity enhancement, inelastic demand), computers (job automation, new replacement industry), and the ice trade (job automation, no replacement industry).
For writing and research, the most optimistic scenario is akin to the printing press, where AI enables higher quality content and increased demand offsets productivity gains, supporting more writers and researchers.
If demand for high-quality content is inelastic, writing and research may become more like mechanized farming, with a smaller number of people using AI to meet the world’s demand.
Programming and paralegal work may face job automation, but the demand for software products seems elastic enough to avoid the fate of the ice trade.
The impact of AI on cognitive labor depends not only on whether it enhances productivity or automates jobs, but also on the elasticity of demand for the outputs.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.