Yes, it appears that for long time horizons (>> 1000 years) there is not hope without theoretical arguments? So an important question (that longermism sort of has to address?) is what f(t) you should plug in in such cases when you have neither empirical evidence nor any developed theory. But, as you write, for shorter horizons empirical approaches could be invaluable!
Yes, it appears that for long time horizons (>> 1000 years) there is not hope without theoretical arguments? So an important question (that longermism sort of has to address?) is what f(t) you should plug in in such cases when you have neither empirical evidence nor any developed theory.
But, as you write, for shorter horizons empirical approaches could be invaluable!