That toy model is similar to Phil’s, so I’d start by reading his stuff. IIRC with log utility the interest rate factors out. With other functions, it can go either way.
However, if your model is more like impact = log(all time longtermist spending before the hinge of history), which also has some truth to it, then I think higher interest rates will generally make you want to give later, since they mean you get more total resources (so long as you can spend it quickly enough as you get close to the hinge).
I think the discount rate for the things you talk about is probably under 1% per year, so doesn’t have a huge effect either way. (Whereas if you think EA capital is going to double again in the next 10 years, then that would double the ideal percentage to distribute.)
That toy model is similar to Phil’s, so I’d start by reading his stuff. IIRC with log utility the interest rate factors out. With other functions, it can go either way.
However, if your model is more like impact = log(all time longtermist spending before the hinge of history), which also has some truth to it, then I think higher interest rates will generally make you want to give later, since they mean you get more total resources (so long as you can spend it quickly enough as you get close to the hinge).
I think the discount rate for the things you talk about is probably under 1% per year, so doesn’t have a huge effect either way. (Whereas if you think EA capital is going to double again in the next 10 years, then that would double the ideal percentage to distribute.)
Will do, thanks!