If ~3% of the more engaged people drop out each year, and the flow of new members stays constant at ~300 per year (14% of 2300), then the number of highly engaged members will tend towards 10,000, which is 4-fold growth from today.
If the ratios stay the same, the number of people at the slightly broader definition of membership will tend towards 30,000.
This process will take ~25 years.
We’ll hopefully be able to grow the flow of people entering in that time(!). If we double the rate of new people entering each year, then we’ll double the long-term equilibrium size.
This also assumes that the drop out rate doesn’t change, but large changes are likely depending on fashion. I’ve also seen evidence that drop out rates tend to decline as people have been involved for longer, though on the other hand, eventually people will start to retire, increasing the drop out rate.
We can take my estimates of the drop out rate to make an estimate of the equilibrium size of the movement.
If ~3% of the more engaged people drop out each year, and the flow of new members stays constant at ~300 per year (14% of 2300), then the number of highly engaged members will tend towards 10,000, which is 4-fold growth from today.
If the ratios stay the same, the number of people at the slightly broader definition of membership will tend towards 30,000.
This process will take ~25 years.
We’ll hopefully be able to grow the flow of people entering in that time(!). If we double the rate of new people entering each year, then we’ll double the long-term equilibrium size.
This also assumes that the drop out rate doesn’t change, but large changes are likely depending on fashion. I’ve also seen evidence that drop out rates tend to decline as people have been involved for longer, though on the other hand, eventually people will start to retire, increasing the drop out rate.