That increases in variance are associated with imminent tipping points. The IPCC characterizes the latter as “low confidence” because the same metrics also rise in unforced scenarios.
What about autocorrelation? I [edit: mistakenly] think Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen themselves identify this as a stronger warning sign than variance.
AR6 doesn’t comment on autocorrelation (see section 9.2), but the paper actually identifies the variance as a stronger signal: “Here we establish such a measure of the confidence for the variance and autocorrelation and demonstrate that variance is the more reliable of the two.”
What about autocorrelation? I [edit: mistakenly] think Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen themselves identify this as a stronger warning sign than variance.
AR6 doesn’t comment on autocorrelation (see section 9.2), but the paper actually identifies the variance as a stronger signal: “Here we establish such a measure of the confidence for the variance and autocorrelation and demonstrate that variance is the more reliable of the two.”
Somewhat embarrassed to have remembered the opposite given that I read this just last week. Thanks!