Thanks for your comment! I’m actually attending the Global Tipping Points Conference right now, and the leading scientists still say there are mixed results regarding net temperature change in post-collapse scenarios and that overall change hides what could be very different summers and winter results. It very much depends on how much warming we have already experienced at the time of a potential AMOC collapse, as well as the state of other interconnected regional climate systems—like the ice sheets. Suffice it to say it’s tough to model. I think it’s fair to say, though, that it wouldn’t just “cancel out,” as there are the ITCZ shift, the monsoon changes, Northern Hemisphere drying, and other knock-on effects outside of surface air temperature.
Thanks for your comment! I’m actually attending the Global Tipping Points Conference right now, and the leading scientists still say there are mixed results regarding net temperature change in post-collapse scenarios and that overall change hides what could be very different summers and winter results. It very much depends on how much warming we have already experienced at the time of a potential AMOC collapse, as well as the state of other interconnected regional climate systems—like the ice sheets. Suffice it to say it’s tough to model. I think it’s fair to say, though, that it wouldn’t just “cancel out,” as there are the ITCZ shift, the monsoon changes, Northern Hemisphere drying, and other knock-on effects outside of surface air temperature.